The welfare effects of partial tariff reduction in Japan

When some sectors are more heavily protected than others, will removing lightly protected sectors’ tariffs improve welfare? We argue that this second-best question is highly relevant in Japan, wherein its government made some exceptions to the across-the-board tariff elimination during the Trans-Pacific Partnership negotiations. We have calibrated a specific factor model with multiple import-competing sectors to the 2015 Japanese economy and conducted some counterfactual exercises. Although the partial tariff removal policy in question barely affects Japanese welfare, when it is combined with the agricultural sector tariff removal (across-the-board tariff elimination) the effect on Japanese welfare is made positive. Furthermore, the positive welfare effect more than doubles if it is combined with the removal of the subsidy in the agricultural sector. Both findings indicate the severity of the existing distortion stemming from the Japanese agricultural sector protection as well as the importance of lowering the protection to render the nonagricultural sector tariff removal meritorious.