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The Politics Of Fdi Expropriation

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  • Marina Azzimonti

Abstract

I examine the role of political instability and fractionalization as potential explanations for the lack of capital flows from rich countries to poor countries (i.e., the Lucas Paradox). Using panel data from 1984 to 2014, I document that (i) developed countries exhibit larger inflows of foreign direct investment (FDI), (ii) countries subject to high investment risk (IR) receive low FDI inflows, and (iii) IR is higher in fractionalized and politically unstable economies. These findings suggest a negative relationship between political instability and FDI through the IR channel. I inspect the theoretical mechanism using a dynamic political economy model of redistribution, wherein policymakers can expropriate resources from foreign investors. The proceeds are used to finance group†specific transfers to domestic workers but hinder economic growth by discouraging FDI. I show that the political equilibrium exhibits overexpropriation and underinvestment.

Suggested Citation

  • Marina Azzimonti, 2018. "The Politics Of Fdi Expropriation," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 59(2), pages 479-510, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:iecrev:v:59:y:2018:i:2:p:479-510
    DOI: 10.1111/iere.12277
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    Cited by:

    1. Bayer, Ralph-C. & Hodler, Roland & Raschky, Paul A. & Strittmatter, Anthony, 2020. "Expropriations, property confiscations and new offshore entities: Evidence from the Panama Papers," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 132-152.
    2. Kose, M. Ayhan & Ohnsorge, Franziska & Ye, Lei (Sandy) & Islamaj, Ergys, 2017. "Weakness in Investment Growth: Causes, Implications and Policy Responses," CEPR Discussion Papers 11886, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    3. King, Timothy & Loncan, Tiago & Khan, Zaheer, 2025. "Dodging expropriation? The role of cash holdings as a firm-level driver of risky FDI location choices," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 34(6).
    4. King, Timothy & Loncan, Tiago & Khan, Zaheer, 2021. "Investment, leverage and political risk: Evidence from project-level FDI," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    5. Lucke, Bernd & Rehfeldt, Erik, 2023. "How does expropriation affect FDI? A synthetic control analysis of oil and gas sector nationalizations in South America," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    6. Shi, Buchao & Huang, Liangxiong & Wei, Shengmin & Geng, Xinyue, 2022. "Overseas industrial parks and China's outward foreign direct investment," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    7. Tiago Loncan, 2021. "The Effects of Project Scale on FDI Location Choices: Evidence from Emerging Economies," Management International Review, Springer, vol. 61(2), pages 157-205, April.
    8. Omar. A. Alghamdi & Gomaa Agag, 2023. "Unlocking the Power of Reporting: Exploring the Link between Voluntary Sustainability Reporting, Customer Behavior, and Firm Value," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(21), pages 1-18, November.
    9. S Shahnawaz, 2024. "FDI Inflows Under Expropriation Risk: Can Pro-Business Policies Overcome Investor Aversion?," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 29(2), pages 57-75, September.
    10. McLemore, Ping & Mihov, Atanas & Sanz, Leandro, 2022. "Global banks and systemic risk: The dark side of country financial connectedness," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    11. World Bank Group, 2017. "Global Economic Prospects, January 2017," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 25823, April.
    12. Qizhen Wang & Qian Zhang, 2022. "Foreign Direct Investment and Carbon Emission Efficiency: The Role of Direct and Indirect Channels," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(20), pages 1-23, October.
    13. Teng, Xingan, 2025. "Left-Wing Political Strength, Inclusive Institutions, and the Evolution of Capitalist Systems," MPRA Paper 126506, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Faek Menla-Ali, 2024. "Geopolitical Risk and Cross-Border Portfolio Flows: Effects and Channels," CESifo Working Paper Series 11337, CESifo.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
    • F38 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Financial Policy: Financial Transactions Tax; Capital Controls
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • H2 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue
    • H21 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Efficiency; Optimal Taxation

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