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Rapid Credit Growth in Emerging Markets: Boon or Boom-Bust?

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  • Selim Elekdag
  • Yiqun Wu

Abstract

Episodes of rapid credit growth, especially credit booms, tend to end abruptly, typically in the form of financial crises. This paper presents the findings of a comprehensive event study focusing on sixty credit booms across emerging markets. The build-up of credit booms across emerging markets seems to be characterized by loose monetary policy stances, with domestic policy rates below trend during the prepeak phase of credit booms. While credit booms are associated with episodes of large capital inflows, international interest rates (a proxy for global liquidity) are virtually flat during these periods. Therefore, although external factors such as global liquidity conditions matter, and possibly increasingly so over time, domestic factors (especially monetary policy) also appear to be tightly associated with real credit growth across emerging markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Selim Elekdag & Yiqun Wu, 2013. "Rapid Credit Growth in Emerging Markets: Boon or Boom-Bust?," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(5), pages 45-62, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:mes:emfitr:v:49:y:2013:i:5:p:45-62
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Kose,Ayhan & Ohnsorge,Franziska Lieselotte & Ye,Lei Sandy & Islamaj,Ergys, 2017. "Weakness in investment growth : causes, implications and policy responses," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7990, The World Bank.
    2. Ranat Eskinat, 2014. "New Monetary Policy Approach in Turkey Against Financial Systemic Risk," South-Eastern Europe Journal of Economics, Association of Economic Universities of South and Eastern Europe and the Black Sea Region, vol. 12(2), pages 201-214.
    3. Channarith Meng & Roberto Leon Gonzalez, 2017. "Credit Booms in Developing Countries: Are They Different from Those in Advanced and Emerging Market Countries?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 28(3), pages 547-579, July.
    4. Ghosh, Atish R. & Qureshi, Mahvash S., 2016. "Capital Inflow Surges and Consequences," ADBI Working Papers 585, Asian Development Bank Institute.
    5. Bezemer, Dirk & Zhang, L, 2014. "From boom to bust in the credit cycle," Research Report 14025-GEM, University of Groningen, Research Institute SOM (Systems, Organisations and Management).
    6. World Bank Group, 2017. "Global Economic Prospects, January 2017," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 25823.

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