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Is Social Spending Procyclical? Evidence for Developing Countries

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  • Arze del Granado, Javier
  • Gupta, Sanjeev
  • Hajdenberg, Alejandro

Abstract

This paper studies the cyclical behavior of public spending on health and education in 145 countries during 1987–2007. It finds that spending on education and health is procyclical in developing countries and acyclical in developed countries. In addition, education and health expenditures follow an asymmetric pattern in developing countries; they are procyclical during periods of positive output gap and acyclical during periods of negative output gap. Furthermore, the degree of cyclicality is higher the lower the level of economic development.

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  • Arze del Granado, Javier & Gupta, Sanjeev & Hajdenberg, Alejandro, 2013. "Is Social Spending Procyclical? Evidence for Developing Countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 16-27.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:wdevel:v:42:y:2013:i:c:p:16-27
    DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2012.07.003
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    8. Hien Nguyen Thi Kim, 2016. "Navigating Cyclicality of Fiscal Policy in Vietnam : An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Management Sciences, Geist Science, Iqra University, Faculty of Business Administration, vol. 3(2), pages 159-173, October.
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    11. Ardanaz, Martín & Izquierdo, Alejandro, 2022. "Current expenditure upswings in good times and public investment downswings in bad times? New evidence from developing countries," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 118-134.
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