IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/cpr/ceprdp/8622.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Government Spending Cyclicality: Evidence from Rainfall Shocks as an Instrument for Cyclical Income

Author

Listed:
  • Gradstein, Mark
  • Brückner, Markus

Abstract

This research revisits the cyclicality of fiscal policies. To identify and estimate more precisely the magnitude of a causal effect of cyclical income on government spending, we employ annual rainfall data as an instrument for national income in the context of sub-Saharan countries. Our results confirm procyclical behavior of government spending and of tax revenues; debt and deficit are found to be countercyclical. Specifically, government spending is procyclical during upturns and acyclical during downturns. We also find that its procyclicality is correlated with corruption, especially among democracies.

Suggested Citation

  • Gradstein, Mark & Brückner, Markus, 2011. "Government Spending Cyclicality: Evidence from Rainfall Shocks as an Instrument for Cyclical Income," CEPR Discussion Papers 8622, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:8622
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://cepr.org/publications/DP8622
    Download Restriction: CEPR Discussion Papers are free to download for our researchers, subscribers and members. If you fall into one of these categories but have trouble downloading our papers, please contact us at subscribers@cepr.org
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alberto Alesina & Filipe R. Campante & Guido Tabellini, 2008. "Why is Fiscal Policy Often Procyclical?," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 6(5), pages 1006-1036, September.
    2. Alesina, Alberto & Devleeschauwer, Arnaud & Easterly, William & Kurlat, Sergio & Wacziarg, Romain, 2003. "Fractionalization," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 8(2), pages 155-194, June.
    3. Graciela L. Kaminsky & Carmen M. Reinhart & Carlos A. Végh, 2005. "When It Rains, It Pours: Procyclical Capital Flows and Macroeconomic Policies," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2004, Volume 19, pages 11-82, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Smith, Ron, 1995. "Estimating long-run relationships from dynamic heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 68(1), pages 79-113, July.
    5. Antonio Ciccone, 2011. "Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict: A Comment," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 3(4), pages 215-227, October.
    6. Andrews,Donald W. K. & Stock,James H. (ed.), 2005. "Identification and Inference for Econometric Models," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521844413.
    7. Talvi, Ernesto & Vegh, Carlos A., 2005. "Tax base variability and procyclical fiscal policy in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(1), pages 156-190, October.
    8. Kaufmann, Daniel & Kraay, Aart & Mastruzzi, Massimo, 2007. "Governance Matters VI: Aggregate and Individual Governance Indicators, 1996-2006," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4280, The World Bank.
    9. Zvi Hercowitz & Michel Strawczynski, 2004. "Cyclical Ratcheting in Government Spending: Evidence from the OECD," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(1), pages 353-361, February.
    10. James H. Stock & Motohiro Yogo, 2002. "Testing for Weak Instruments in Linear IV Regression," NBER Technical Working Papers 0284, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Barro, Robert J, 1979. "On the Determination of the Public Debt," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(5), pages 940-971, October.
    12. Douglas Staiger & James H. Stock, 1997. "Instrumental Variables Regression with Weak Instruments," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(3), pages 557-586, May.
    13. Ethan Ilzetzki & Carlos A. Vegh, 2008. "Procyclical Fiscal Policy in Developing Countries: Truth or Fiction?," NBER Working Papers 14191, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Markus Brückner & Antonio Ciccone, 2011. "Rain and the Democratic Window of Opportunity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 79(3), pages 923-947, May.
    15. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
    16. Morten O. Ravn & Harald Uhlig, 2002. "On adjusting the Hodrick-Prescott filter for the frequency of observations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(2), pages 371-375.
    17. Brückner, Markus, 2012. "An instrumental variables approach to estimating tax revenue elasticities: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(2), pages 220-227.
    18. Olivier Blanchard & Roberto Perotti, 2002. "An Empirical Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending and Taxes on Output," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(4), pages 1329-1368.
    19. Ugo Panizza & Dany Jaimovich, 2007. "Procyclicality or Reverse Causality?," Research Department Publications 4508, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    20. Ugo Panizza & Dany Jaimovich, 2007. "Procyclicality or Reverse Causality?," Research Department Publications 4508, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    21. Aizenman, Joshua & Hausmann, Ricardo, 2000. "The impact of inflation on budgetary discipline," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(2), pages 425-449, December.
    22. Ilzetzki, Ethan, 2011. "Rent-seeking distortions and fiscal procyclicality," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(1), pages 30-46, September.
    23. Michael Gavin & Roberto Perotti, 1997. "Fiscal Policy in Latin America," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12, pages 11-72, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    24. Edward Miguel & Shanker Satyanath & Ernest Sergenti, 2004. "Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict: An Instrumental Variables Approach," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(4), pages 725-753, August.
    25. Paolo Mauro, 1995. "Corruption and Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 110(3), pages 681-712.
    26. Salvador Barrios & Luisito Bertinelli & Eric Strobl, 2010. "Trends in Rainfall and Economic Growth in Africa: A Neglected Cause of the African Growth Tragedy," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 92(2), pages 350-366, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Brückner, Markus & Gradstein, Mark, 2014. "Government spending cyclicality: Evidence from transitory and persistent shocks in developing countries," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 107-116.
    2. Hongsheng Fang & Minyuan He & Dandan Dang & Jun Zhang, 2020. "Endogenous cyclical corporate tax burden in China: The role of tax quotas and growth targets," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(12), pages 3314-3339, December.
    3. Ethan Ilzetzki & Carlos A. Vegh, 2008. "Procyclical Fiscal Policy in Developing Countries: Truth or Fiction?," NBER Working Papers 14191, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Coutinho, Leonor & Georgiou, Dimitrios & Heracleous, Maria & Michaelides, Alexander & Tsani, Stella, 2022. "Limiting fiscal procyclicality: Evidence from resource-dependent countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    5. Ardanaz, Martín & Izquierdo, Alejandro, 2017. "Current Expenditure Upswings in Good Times and Capital Expenditure Downswings in Bad Times?: New Evidence from Developing Countries," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 8558, Inter-American Development Bank.
    6. Combes, Jean-Louis & Minea, Alexandru & Sow, Moussé, 2017. "Is fiscal policy always counter- (pro-) cyclical? The role of public debt and fiscal rules," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 138-146.
    7. Hongsheng Fang & Wen‐Quan Hu & Ruhua Shi & Xufei Zhang, 2023. "The Chinese‐style macroeconomic control: The role of state‐owned enterprises," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 46(3), pages 702-725, March.
    8. Michaelides, Alexander & Coutinho, Leonor & Georgiou, Dimitrios & Heracleous, Maria & Tsani, Stella, 2013. "Limiting Fiscal Procyclicality: Evidence from Resource-Rich Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 9672, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Galindo, Arturo J. & Panizza, Ugo, 2018. "The cyclicality of international public sector borrowing in developing countries: Does the lender matter?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 119-135.
    10. Bauducco, Sofia & Caprioli, Francesco, 2014. "Optimal fiscal policy in a small open economy with limited commitment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 302-315.
    11. Panizza, Ugo & Jaimovich, Dany, 2007. "Procyclicality or Reverse Causality?," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 1949, Inter-American Development Bank.
    12. Brückner, Markus & Chong, Alberto & Gradstein, Mark, 2012. "Estimating the permanent income elasticity of government expenditures: Evidence on Wagner's law based on oil price shocks," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(11), pages 1025-1035.
    13. Ugo Panizza & Dany Jaimovich, 2007. "Prociclicalidad o Causalidad Reversa?," Research Department Publications 4509, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
    14. Gonzáles Zuazo, Rodrigo & Molina Fernández, José Miguel, 2017. "On Graduation from Fiscal Procyclicality: The case of Bolivia," Revista Latinoamericana de Desarrollo Economico, Carrera de Economía de la Universidad Católica Boliviana (UCB) "San Pablo", issue 27, pages 39-56, May.
    15. Davide Furceri & Georgios Karras, 2011. "Average Tax Rate Cyclicality in OECD Countries: A Test of Three Fiscal Policy Theories," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 77(4), pages 958-972, April.
    16. Faqin Lin & Ermias O. Weldemicael & Xiaosong Wang, 2017. "Export sophistication increases income in sub-Saharan Africa: evidence from 1981–2000," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 52(4), pages 1627-1649, June.
    17. Ardanaz, Martín & Izquierdo, Alejandro, 2022. "Current expenditure upswings in good times and public investment downswings in bad times? New evidence from developing countries," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 118-134.
    18. Navarat Temsumrit, 2020. "Does Democracy Affect Cyclical Fiscal Policy? Evidence From Developing Countries," PIER Discussion Papers 125, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research.
    19. Wee Chian Koh, 2017. "Fiscal Policy in Oil-exporting Countries: The Roles of Oil Funds and Institutional Quality," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 21(3), pages 567-590, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal policy; Cyclicality;

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:8622. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.cepr.org .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.