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An instrumental variables approach to estimating tax revenue elasticities: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa

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  • Brückner, Markus

Abstract

This paper exploits the significant response of real GDP growth of Sub-Saharan African countries to exogenous international commodity price and rainfall shocks to construct instrumental variables estimates of the tax revenue elasticity IV estimates yield that a 1% increase in GDP increases tax revenues by up to 2.5%.

Suggested Citation

  • Brückner, Markus, 2012. "An instrumental variables approach to estimating tax revenue elasticities: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(2), pages 220-227.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:deveco:v:98:y:2012:i:2:p:220-227
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2011.07.006
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    2. Paul Cashin & Hong Liang & C. John McDermott, 2000. "How Persistent Are Shocks to World Commodity Prices?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 47(2), pages 1-2.
    3. Angus Deaton, 2005. "ERRATUM: Measuring Poverty in a Growing World (or Measuring Growth in a Poor World)," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(2), pages 395-395, May.
    4. Shamsuddin Tareq & Andrew Berg & Victor Duarte Lledo & Antonio Spilimbergo & Rolando Ossowski & Irene Yackovlev & Norbert Funke & Alejandro Hajdenberg & Martin Schindler, 2009. "Fiscal Policy in Sub-Saharan Africa in Response to the Impact of the Global Crisis," IMF Staff Position Notes 2009/10, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Guido Wolswijk, 2009. "The short- and long-run tax revenue response to changes in tax bases," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 29(3), pages 1960-1970.
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    10. Dhaneshwar Ghura, 1998. "Tax Revenue in Sub-Saharan Africa; Effects of Economic Policies and Corruption," IMF Working Papers 98/135, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Angus Deaton, 1999. "Commodity Prices and Growth in Africa," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 13(3), pages 23-40, Summer.
    12. Sobel, Russell S. & Holcombe, Randall G., 1996. "Measuring the Growth and Variability of Tax Bases Over the Business Cycle," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 49(4), pages 535-552, December.
    13. Markus Brückner & Antonio Ciccone, 2010. "International Commodity Prices, Growth and the Outbreak of Civil War in Sub-Saharan Africa," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 120(544), pages 519-534, May.
    14. Mehmet Serkan Tosun & Sohrab Abizadeh, 2005. "Economic growth and tax components: an analysis of tax changes in OECD," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(19), pages 2251-2263.
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    16. Baunsgaard, Thomas & Keen, Michael, 2010. "Tax revenue and (or?) trade liberalization," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 94(9-10), pages 563-577, October.
    17. Donald Bruce & William F. Fox & M.H. Tuttle, 2006. "Tax Base Elasticities: A Multi-State Analysis of Long-Run and Short-Run Dynamics," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 73(2), pages 315-341, October.
    18. Adam, Christopher S. & Bevan, David L. & Chambas, Gerard, 2001. "Exchange rate regimes and revenue performance in Sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1), pages 173-213, February.
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    21. Sobel, Russell S. & Holcombe, Randall G., 1996. "Measuring the Growth and Variability of Tax Bases over the Business Cycle," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 49(4), pages 535-52, December.
    22. Salvador Barrios & Luisito Bertinelli & Eric Strobl, 2010. "Trends in Rainfall and Economic Growth in Africa: A Neglected Cause of the African Growth Tragedy," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 92(2), pages 350-366, May.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mertens, Karel & Ravn, Morten O., 2014. "A reconciliation of SVAR and narrative estimates of tax multipliers," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(S), pages 1-19.
    2. Brückner, Markus & Gradstein, Mark, 2011. "Government Spending Cyclicality: Evidence from Rainfall Shocks as an Instrument for Cyclical Income," CEPR Discussion Papers 8622, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Sanoh, Aly, 2015. "Rainfall Shocks, Local Revenues, and Intergovernmental Transfer in Mali," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 359-370.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Tax revenues; Growth; Instrumental variables;

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • H20 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - General
    • H60 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - General
    • O55 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Africa

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