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Unlocking Pakistan’s Revenue Potential

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  • Serhan Cevik

Abstract

Pakistan’s tax revenue remains low relative to comparator countries and the tax effort expected for the country’s level of development. This creates significant challenges in providing the much-desired fiscal space to expand growth-enhancing expenditure on infrastructure, education, health care and targeted social assistance. This article estimates both short-run and long-run elasticities of tax revenue in Pakistan over the period 1960–2015 to better understand the evolution of tax revenue in the context of changing economic activity, using a novel identification strategy based on the instrumental variable (IV) approach and an error correction model (ECM) to address concerns about the potential endogeneity of tax revenue and economic growth. The empirical results indicate that both short-run and long-run elasticities of tax revenue are slightly above 1 over the sample period. There is, however, significant variation in short-run and long-run elasticities across subcategories of tax revenue. These findings underscore the need for a concerted agenda of comprehensive reforms at federal and provincial levels aimed at broadening tax bases, strengthening revenue administration and taxpayer compliance, eliminating distortionary and overgenerous tax concessions and exemptions, and rationalizing tax policy in an efficient and equitable manner. JEL: C23, C32, E62, H2, H62, H68

Suggested Citation

  • Serhan Cevik, 2018. "Unlocking Pakistan’s Revenue Potential," South Asian Journal of Macroeconomics and Public Finance, , vol. 7(1), pages 17-36, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:sae:smppub:v:7:y:2018:i:1:p:17-36
    DOI: 10.1177/2277978718760068
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Andrew Feltenstein & Jorge Martinez-Vazquez & Biplab Datta & Sohani Fatehin, 2022. "A general equilibrium model of Value Added Tax evasion: an application to Pakistan," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 19(3), pages 537-556, July.
    2. Umaima Imran, 2025. "Misallocation of Resources, Political Connections and External Flows," LCERPA Working Papers jc0151, Laurier Centre for Economic Research and Policy Analysis, revised Jan 2025.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Tax policy; revenue administration; tax bouyancy; tax elasticity;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H2 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
    • H68 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt

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