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Measuring the Growth and Variability of Tax Bases Over the Business Cycle

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  • Sobel, Russell S.
  • Holcombe, Randall G.

Abstract

Shows that the standard method for estimating elasticity results in asymptotic bias and inconsistent standard errors. Uses time-series econometric techniques to provide unbiased estimates of the long-run growth potential (the long-run elasticity) and cyclical variability (the short-run elasticity) of all major tax bases.

Suggested Citation

  • Sobel, Russell S. & Holcombe, Randall G., 1996. "Measuring the Growth and Variability of Tax Bases Over the Business Cycle," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 49(4), pages 535-552, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:ntj:journl:v:49:y:1996:i:4:p:535-52
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ogaki, M., 1993. "Unit Roots In Macroeconomics: A Survey," RCER Working Papers 364, University of Rochester - Center for Economic Research (RCER).
    2. Johansen, Soren, 1992. "Cointegration in partial systems and the efficiency of single-equation analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 389-402, June.
    3. Phillips, P.C.B., 1986. "Understanding spurious regressions in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 311-340, December.
    4. Masao Ogaki, 1993. "Unit Roots in Macroeconometrics: A Survey," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 11(2), pages 131-154, December.
    5. Andrews, Donald W K, 1993. "Tests for Parameter Instability and Structural Change with Unknown Change Point," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 821-856, July.
    6. Gold, Steven D., 1991. "Changes in State Government Finances in the 1980s," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 44(1), pages 1-19, March.
    7. Gold, Steven D., 1991. "Changes in State Government Finances in the 1980s," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association, vol. 44(1), pages 1-19, March.
    8. Saikkonen, Pentti, 1991. "Asymptotically Efficient Estimation of Cointegration Regressions," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(01), pages 1-21, March.
    9. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    10. Stock, James H, 1987. "Asymptotic Properties of Least Squares Estimators of Cointegrating Vectors," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(5), pages 1035-1056, September.
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