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Estimating the permanent income elasticity of government expenditures: Evidence on Wagner's law based on oil price shocks

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  • Brückner, Markus
  • Chong, Alberto
  • Gradstein, Mark

Abstract

This paper provides instrumental variable estimates of the permanent income elasticity of government expenditures. It uses annual variation in the international oil price weighted with countries' average oil net-export GDP shares as a plausibly exogenous source of within-country variation in countries’ permanent income. The short-run estimates of the permanent income elasticity are robust across alternative specifications and are below one: the estimated elasticity coefficients range between 0.3 and 0.6 and have standard errors of 0.1 and 0.4, respectively. Point estimates of long-run elasticities are somewhat larger but still smaller than unity. The investment component of government spending is found to be more elastic than the consumption component, whereas elasticity differences between rich and poor countries are insignificant.

Suggested Citation

  • Brückner, Markus & Chong, Alberto & Gradstein, Mark, 2012. "Estimating the permanent income elasticity of government expenditures: Evidence on Wagner's law based on oil price shocks," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(11), pages 1025-1035.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:pubeco:v:96:y:2012:i:11:p:1025-1035
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2012.08.002
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    6. Emmanouil Kitsios & Manasa Patnam, 2016. "Estimating Fiscal Multipliers with Correlated Heterogeneity," IMF Working Papers 2016/013, International Monetary Fund.
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    9. Markus Brückner & Alberto Chong & Mark Gradstein, 2021. "National income and trust," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(1), pages 293-314, February.
    10. Markus Brueckner & Hannes Schwandt, 2015. "Income and Population Growth," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 125(589), pages 1653-1676, December.
    11. Yoshito Funashima, 2017. "Wagner’s law versus displacement effect," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(7), pages 619-634, February.
    12. Navarat Temsumrit, 2020. "Does Democracy Affect Cyclical Fiscal Policy? Evidence From Developing Countries," PIER Discussion Papers 125, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research.
    13. Marco Gallegati & Massimo Tamberi, 2022. "Long swings in the growth of government expenditure: an international historical perspective," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 192(3), pages 227-248, September.
    14. Dan Lupu & Mihai Bogdan Petrisor & Ana Bercu & Mihaela Tofan, 2018. "The Impact of Public Expenditures on Economic Growth: A Case Study of Central and Eastern European Countries," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(3), pages 552-570, February.
    15. Marko Köthenbürger & Gabriel Loumeau, 2023. "Tax Responses in Local Public Finance: The Flypaper Effect at Work," CESifo Working Paper Series 10354, CESifo.
    16. Kodjovi M. Eklou, 2020. "A Leadership Curse? Oil Price Shocks and the Selection of National Leaders," Cahiers de recherche 20-05, Departement d'économique de l'École de gestion à l'Université de Sherbrooke.
    17. Funashima, Yoshito, 2015. "Wagner's law versus displacement effect," MPRA Paper 68390, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Bilal KARGI, 2016. "Is Wagner’s law applicable for fast growing economies? BRICS and MATIK countries," Timisoara Journal of Economics and Business, West University of Timisoara, Romania, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 9(1), pages 1-15, June.

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