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Action-Based Fiscal Consolidations and Economic Growth

Author

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  • Markus Brueckner

    (Research School of Economics, Australian National University, Acton, Canberra 0200, Australia)

Abstract

This paper tests the hypothesis that action-based fiscal consolidations have a negative effect on GDP growth. Using the IMF’s dataset on action-based fiscal consolidations, instrumental variables’ regressions show that action-based fiscal consolidations have a significant positive effect on GDP growth. The instrumental variables’ regressions also show that action-based fiscal consolidations significantly increase investment and productivity. The findings presented in this paper thus strongly reject the hypothesis that action-based fiscal consolidations reduce growth. The paper argues that least squares estimates presented in previous literature suffer from negative reverse causality bias: GDP growth has a significant positive effect on both the likelihood and the magnitude of action-based fiscal consolidations. To uncover causal effects of action-based fiscal consolidations, researchers need to use an instrumental variables approach.

Suggested Citation

  • Markus Brueckner, 2024. "Action-Based Fiscal Consolidations and Economic Growth," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 17(5), pages 1-27, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jjrfmx:v:17:y:2024:i:5:p:194-:d:1390644
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    4. Mr. Andrea Pescatori & Mr. Daniel Leigh & Mr. Jaime Guajardo & Mr. Pete Devries, 2011. "A New Action-Based Dataset of Fiscal Consolidation," IMF Working Papers 2011/128, International Monetary Fund.
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    6. Yan Carrière‐Swallow & Antonio C. David & Daniel Leigh, 2021. "Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Consolidation in Emerging Economies: New Narrative Evidence from Latin America and the Caribbean," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(6), pages 1313-1335, September.
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