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The effects of fiscal consolidations on the composition of government spending

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  • Moulaye Bamba

    (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - UCA [2017-2020] - Université Clermont Auvergne [2017-2020] - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Jean-Louis Combes

    (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - UdA - Université d'Auvergne - Clermont-Ferrand I - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Alexandru Minea

    (CERDI - Centre d'Études et de Recherches sur le Développement International - UdA - Université d'Auvergne - Clermont-Ferrand I - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

In response to increasing debt paths, governments often implement fiscal consolidation programs. This paper studies the impact of these programs on the composition of government spending. System-GMM estimations performed on a sample of 53 developed and emerging countries over 1980-2011 reveal that fiscal consolidations significantly reduce the government investment-to-consumption ratio, i.e. a composition effect. Robust to a wide set of tests, this significantly stronger contraction of government investment with respect to government consumption is at work particularly when debt is high, for spending-based fiscal consolidations, in the low phase of the economic cycle, and following debt and stock market crises. Therefore, in such contexts, fiscal consolidations aimed at short-run stabilization may hurt the economy in the long-run through their detrimental effect on public investment, calling for a reflection upon how they could be re-designed to allow avoiding such undesirable consequences.
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  • Moulaye Bamba & Jean-Louis Combes & Alexandru Minea, 2020. "The effects of fiscal consolidations on the composition of government spending," Post-Print hal-02887275, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-02887275
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2019.1676392
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-02887275
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    4. Olegs Tkacevs, 2020. "Secular Decline in Public Investment: are National Fiscal Rules to Blame?," Working Papers 2020/04, Latvijas Banka.
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    9. Jacques, Olivier & Noël, Alain, 2022. "The politics of public health investments," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 309(C).
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