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Measuring the Success of Fiscal Consolidations

Author

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  • António Afonso
  • João Tovar-Valles

Abstract

We measure the success of fiscal consolidation, with alternative definitions, based on ad-hoc quantitative approaches and on a policy-action approach. The cyclically adjusted primary balance, and the duration of the consolidation contribute for its success, and the opposite applies for revenue based consolidations.

Suggested Citation

  • António Afonso & João Tovar-Valles, 2011. "Measuring the Success of Fiscal Consolidations," Working Papers Department of Economics 2011/22, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
  • Handle: RePEc:ise:isegwp:wp222011
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Salvador Barrios & Sven Langedijk & Lucio Pench, 2010. "EU fiscal consolidation after the financial crisis. Lessons from past experiences," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 418, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    2. António Afonso, 2010. "Expansionary fiscal consolidations in Europe: new evidence," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(2), pages 105-109, January.
    3. Heylen, Freddy & Everaert, Gerdie, 2000. "Success and Failure of Fiscal Consolidation in the OECD: A Multivariate Analysis," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 105(1-2), pages 103-124, October.
    4. António Afonso & Christiane Nickel & Philipp C. Rother, 2006. "Fiscal Consolidations in the Central and Eastern European Countries," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 142(2), pages 402-421, July.
    5. Giudice, Gabriele & Turrini, Alessandro Antonio & Veld, Jan in't, 2004. "Non-Keynesian Fiscal Consolidation in the EU? Ex Post Evidence and Ex Ante Analysis," CEPR Discussion Papers 4388, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Piotr Ciżkowicz & Andrzej Rzońca & Rafał Trzeciakowski, 2015. "Windfall of Low Interest Payments and Fiscal Sustainability in the Euro Area: Analysis through Panel Fiscal Reaction Functions," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 68(4), pages 475-510, November.
    2. Castro, Vítor, 2017. "The impact of fiscal consolidations on the functional components of government expenditures," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 138-150.
    3. Georgia Kaplanoglou & Vassilis T. Rapanos & Ioanna C. Bardakas, 2015. "Does Fairness Matter for the Success of Fiscal Consolidation?," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 68(2), pages 197-219, May.
    4. João Tovar Jalles & Carlos Mulas-Granados & José Tavares, 2016. "Fiscal Discipline and Exchange Rates; Does Politics Matter?," IMF Working Papers 16/230, International Monetary Fund.
    5. António Afonso & Luís Martins, 2016. "Monetary Developments and Expansionary Fiscal Consolidations: Evidence from the EMU," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(3), pages 247-265, July.
    6. Heylen, Freddy & Hoebeeck, Annelies & Buyse, Tim, 2013. "Government efficiency, institutions, and the effects of fiscal consolidation on public debt," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 40-59.
    7. repec:sos:sosjrn:170406 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Julio Escolano & Laura Jaramillo & Carlos Mulas-Granados & G. Terrier, 2014. "How Much is A Lot? Historical Evidence on the Size of Fiscal Adjustments," IMF Working Papers 14/179, International Monetary Fund.
    9. Christoph A. Schaltegger & Martin Weder, 2012. "Are Fiscal Adjustments Contractionary?," FinanzArchiv: Public Finance Analysis, Mohr Siebeck, Tübingen, vol. 68(4), pages 335-364, December.
    10. Vitor Castro, 2016. "On the behaviour of the functional components ofgovernment expenditures during fiscal consolidations," NIPE Working Papers 11/2016, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    fiscal episodes; panel data; logit Classification-C23; E62; H50; H62;

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