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The effects of fiscal consolidations on the composition of government spending

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  • Moulaye Bamba
  • Jean-Louis Combes
  • Alexandru Minea

Abstract

In response to increasing debt paths, governments often implement fiscal consolidation programs. This paper studies the impact of these programs on the composition of government spending. System-GMM estimations performed on a sample of 53 developed and emerging countries over 1980–2011 reveal that fiscal consolidations significantly reduce the government investment-to-consumption ratio, i.e. a composition effect. Robust to a wide set of tests, including when using the narrative approach to identify fiscal consolidations, this significantly stronger contraction of government investment with respect to government consumption is at work particularly when debt is high and in the low phase of the economic cycle. Therefore, in such contexts, fiscal consolidations aimed at short-run stabilization may hurt the economy in the long-run through their detrimental effect on public investment, calling for a reflection upon how they could be re-designed to allow avoiding such undesirable consequences.

Suggested Citation

  • Moulaye Bamba & Jean-Louis Combes & Alexandru Minea, 2020. "The effects of fiscal consolidations on the composition of government spending," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(14), pages 1517-1532, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:applec:v:52:y:2020:i:14:p:1517-1532
    DOI: 10.1080/00036846.2019.1676392
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    Cited by:

    1. Combes, Jean-Louis & Minea, Alexandru & Sawadogo, Pegdéwendé Nestor, 2021. "Does the composition of government spending matter for government bond spreads?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 409-420.
    2. Olegs Tkacevs, 2020. "Secular Decline in Public Investment: are National Fiscal Rules to Blame?," Working Papers 2020/04, Latvijas Banka.
    3. Georgantas, Georgios & Kasselaki, Maria & Tagkalakis, Athanasios, 2023. "Τhe effects of fiscal consolidation in OECD countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    4. Amélie Barbier-Gauchard & Kea Baret & Alexandru Minea, 2021. "National fiscal rules and fiscal discipline in the European Union," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(20), pages 2337-2359, April.
    5. Ameni Mtibaa & Foued Badr Gabsi, 2025. "Fiscal Consolidation and Debt Sustainability in Latin America and the Caribbean: Evidence from a Panel Threshold Logit Model," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 16(5), pages 16870-16900, November.
    6. Ardanaz, Martín & Cavallo, Eduardo & Izquierdo, Alejandro & Puig, Jorge, 2021. "Growth-friendly fiscal rules? Safeguarding public investment from budget cuts through fiscal rule design," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    7. Jocelyne Zoumenou, 2023. "On the impact of fiscal policy on inflation: The case of fiscal rules," EconomiX Working Papers 2023-21, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    8. Grégory Donnat & Maxime Menuet & Alexandru Minea & Patrick Villieu, 2025. "Does Public Debt Impair Total Factor Productivity?," GREDEG Working Papers 2025-26, Groupe de REcherche en Droit, Economie, Gestion (GREDEG CNRS), Université Côte d'Azur, France.
    9. Martin Larch & Wouter Wielen, 2025. "Comply and invest: the effect of EU fiscal rules on public investment," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 69(4), pages 1725-1750, October.
    10. Apeti, Ablam Estel & Combes, Jean-Louis & Minea, Alexandru, 2023. "Inflation targeting and the composition of public expenditure: Evidence from developing countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    11. Amine Lahiani & Ameni Mtibaa & Foued Gabsi, 2022. "Fiscal Consolidation, Social Sector Expenditures and Twin Deficit Hypothesis: Evidence from Emerging and Middle-Income Countries," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 64(4), pages 710-747, December.
    12. Badru, Ruth & Calef, Andrea & Ilori, Ayobami E. & Omoju, Oluwasola E., 2025. "Fiscal consolidation and asymmetric macroeconomic effects: Evidence from Sub-Saharan African countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    13. Gianluca Cafiso & Roberto Cellini, 2022. "Market-Induced Fiscal Discipline in Europe," Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 8(2), pages 259-287, July.
    14. Eugene Msizi Buthelezi & Phocenah Nyatanga, 2023. "Threshold of the CAPB That Can Be Attributed to Fiscal Consolidation Episodes in South Africa," Economies, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-26, May.
    15. Jacques, Olivier & Noël, Alain, 2022. "The politics of public health investments," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 309(C).
    16. David Cronin & Niall McInerney, 2026. "The EU Fiscal Rules’ Expenditure Benchmark and Investment’s Share of Government Spending," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 68(1), pages 1-29, March.
    17. Daniel Artana & Cynthia Moskovits & Jorge Puig & Ivana Templado, 2022. "Fiscal rules and the behavior of public investment: towards growth-friendly fiscal policy? The case of Argentina," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 2(8), pages 1-23, August.
    18. Cezara Vinturis, 2023. "How do fiscal rules shape governments' spending behavior?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 61(2), pages 322-341, April.
    19. Sawadogo, Rayangnewendé Frans, 2024. "Do fiscal rules shape private-sector investment decisions?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    20. Ardanaz, Martín & Cavallo, Eduardo A. & Izquierdo, Alejandro & Puig, Jorge, 2021. "The Output Effects of Fiscal Consolidations: Does Spending Composition Matter?," IDB Publications (Working Papers) 11857, Inter-American Development Bank.
    21. Olivier Jacques & Alain Noel, 2022. "Austerity Reduces Public Health Investment," CIRANO Working Papers 2022s-02, CIRANO.

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