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Non-Keynesian Fiscal Consolidation in the EU? Ex Post Evidence and Ex Ante Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Turrini, Alessandro
  • Giudice, Gabriele
  • ,

Abstract

This Paper analyses the occurrence of non-Keynesian effects in fiscal consolidations in the EU. The analysis is carried out both ex post, i.e. by looking at the emergence of expansionary consolidations in the past and at their characteristics, and ex ante, i.e. by simulating with the European Commission QUEST model under which conditions public finance consolidation would exhibit non-Keynesian effects in the current EMU context. Cross-country analysis shows that roughly half of the episodes of fiscal consolidations that have been undertaken in the EU in the last 30 years have been followed by an acceleration in growth. The consolidations that turned out to be expansionary were in general based on expenditure cuts rather than on revenue increases. Simulations with the QUEST model show that expansionary effects from fiscal consolidations can emerge in the short/medium run provided that consolidations are expenditure-based. Irrespective of the type of expenditure cut simulated, non-Keynesian effects in QUEST are associated with a reaction of aggregate consumption to expected future incomes; in the case of cuts to the government wage bill the investment channel is also relevant.

Suggested Citation

  • Turrini, Alessandro & Giudice, Gabriele & ,, 2004. "Non-Keynesian Fiscal Consolidation in the EU? Ex Post Evidence and Ex Ante Analysis," CEPR Discussion Papers 4388, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:4388
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. António Afonso, 2007. "An Avenue for Expansionary Fiscal Contractions," The IUP Journal of Public Finance, IUP Publications, vol. 0(3), pages 7-15, August.
    2. António Afonso, 2011. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Policy," Post-Print hal-00719484, HAL.
    3. António Afonso & Luís Martins, 2016. "Monetary Developments and Expansionary Fiscal Consolidations: Evidence from the EMU," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(3), pages 247-265, July.
    4. Jean-Paul Pollin & Jean-Luc Gaffard, 2013. "Pourquoi faut-il séparer les activités bancaires ?," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/1cud3763mom, Sciences Po.
    5. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Collins, Alan, 2014. "Does Fiscal Consolidation Really Get You Down? Evidence from Suicide Mortality," Department of Economics Working Paper Series 182, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
    6. Burger, Anton, 2006. "Reasons for the U.S. growth period in the nineties: non-keynesian effects, asset wealth and productivity," Department of Economics Working Paper Series 95, WU Vienna University of Economics and Business.
    7. International Monetary Fund, 2004. "Bulgaria: Selected Issues and Statistical Appendix," IMF Staff Country Reports 2004/177, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Philip Arestis & Ayşe Kaya & Hüseyin Şen, 2018. "Does fiscal consolidation promote economic growth and employment? Evidence from the PIIGGS countries," European Journal of Economics and Economic Policies: Intervention, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 15(3), pages 289-312, November.
    9. Afonso, António & Jalles, João Tovar, 2014. "Assessing fiscal episodes," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 255-270.
    10. Ant�nio Afonso, 2010. "Expansionary fiscal consolidations in Europe: new evidence," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(2), pages 105-109, January.
    11. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/1cud3763momrc7c9o91o4g581 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. António Afonso & João Tovar-Valles, 2011. "Measuring the Success of Fiscal Consolidations," Working Papers Department of Economics 2011/22, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    13. Ant Afonso & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2012. "The macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(34), pages 4439-4454, December.
    14. António Afonso, 2007. "Expansionary fiscal consolidations in Europe: part of conventional wisdom?," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 50, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
    15. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Collins, Alan, 2015. "The impact of fiscal austerity on suicide mortality: Evidence across the ‘Eurozone periphery’," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 63-78.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal policy in the eu; Fiscal consolidations; Non-keynesian effects of fiscal policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
    • H30 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - General
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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