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The Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Consolidation in Emerging Economies: Evidence from Latin America

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  • Mr. Yan Carriere-Swallow
  • Mr. Antonio David
  • Mr. Daniel Leigh

Abstract

We estimate the short-term effects of fiscal consolidation on economic activity in 14 countries in Latin America and the Caribbean. We examine contemporaneous policy documents to identify changes in fiscal policy motivated by a desire to reduce the budget deficit and not by responding to prospective economic conditions. Based on this narrative dataset, our estimates suggest that fiscal consolidation has contractionary effects on GDP, consistent with a multiplier of 0.9. We find these effects to be close to those in OECD countries based on a similarly constructed dataset (Devries and others, 2011). We also find similar estimation results for the two groups of economies for the effect of fiscal consolidation on the external current account balance, providing support for the twin deficits hypothesis.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Yan Carriere-Swallow & Mr. Antonio David & Mr. Daniel Leigh, 2018. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Consolidation in Emerging Economies: Evidence from Latin America," IMF Working Papers 2018/142, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2018/142
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    Cited by:

    1. Ms. Era Dabla-Norris & Frederico Lima, 2018. "Macroeconomic Effects of Tax Rate and Base Changes: Evidence from Fiscal Consolidations," IMF Working Papers 2018/220, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Sawadogo, Ibrahim, 2019. "Fiscal revenues and macroeconomic effects : case of Burkina Faso," MPRA Paper 97287, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Hayley Pallan, 2022. "Do Investors Care About Consumption Taxes? Evidence from Equities in Advanced and Emerging Economies," IHEID Working Papers 14-2022, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    4. Milenko Krajišnik & Dragan Gligoriæ & Biljana Gojkoviæ, 2019. "Effects of fiscal consolidation in Western Balkan Countries," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics and Business, vol. 37(2), pages 527-551.
    5. Davide Furceri & Aleksandra Zdzienicka, 2020. "Twin Deficits in Developing Economies," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 31(1), pages 1-23, February.
    6. Christian Estmann & Henrik Hansen & John Rand, 2021. "Fiscal policy responses to COVID-19 in Danida priority countries in Sub-Saharan Africa," DERG working paper series 21-09, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. Development Economics Research Group (DERG).
    7. Carolina Correa-Caro & Leandro Medina & Mr. Marcos Poplawski Ribeiro & Mr. Bennett W Sutton, 2018. "Fiscal Stimulus Impact on Firms' Profitability During the Global Financial Crisis," IMF Working Papers 2018/251, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Eduardo de Sá Fortes Leitão Rodrigues, 2020. "Uncertainty And The Effectiveness Of Fiscal Policy In The United States And Brazil: Svar Approach," Working Papers REM 2020/0150, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    9. Thibault Lemaire, 2020. "Fiscal Consolidations and Informality in Latin America and the Caribbean," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 20004, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    10. David, Antonio C. & Guajardo, Jaime & Yepez, Juan F., 2022. "The rewards of fiscal consolidations: Sovereign spreads and confidence effects," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    11. Amine Lahiani & Ameni Mtibaa & Foued Gabsi, 2022. "Fiscal Consolidation, Social Sector Expenditures and Twin Deficit Hypothesis: Evidence from Emerging and Middle-Income Countries," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 64(4), pages 710-747, December.
    12. García-Albán, Freddy & González-Astudillo, Manuel & Vera-Avellán, Cristhian, 2021. "Good policy or good luck? Analyzing the effects of fiscal policy and oil revenue shocks in Ecuador," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
    13. António Afonso & Eduardo de Sá Fortes Leitao Rodrigues, 2022. "Is Public Investment in Construction and in R&D, Growth Enhancing? A PVAR Approach," CESifo Working Paper Series 10048, CESifo.
    14. Eduardo de Sa Fortes Leitao Rodrigues, 2023. "Uncertainty and the effectiveness of fiscal policy in the United States and Brasil: SVAR Approach," Working Papers 2023.03, International Network for Economic Research - INFER.

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