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Macroeconomic Effects of Tax Rate and Base Changes: Evidence from Fiscal Consolidations

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  • Ms. Era Dabla-Norris
  • Frederico Lima

Abstract

This paper examines the macroeconomic effects of tax changes during fiscal consolidations. We build a new narrative dataset of tax changes during fiscal consolidation years, containing detailed information on the expected revenue impact, motivation, and announcement and implementation dates of nearly 2,500 tax measures across 10 OECD countries. We analyze the macroeconomic impact of tax changes, distinguishing between tax rate and tax base changes, and further separating between changes in personal income, corporate income, and value added tax. Our results suggest that base broadening during fiscal consolidations leads to smaller output and employment declines compared to rate hikes, even when distinguishing between tax types.

Suggested Citation

  • Ms. Era Dabla-Norris & Frederico Lima, 2018. "Macroeconomic Effects of Tax Rate and Base Changes: Evidence from Fiscal Consolidations," IMF Working Papers 2018/220, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2018/220
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    3. Salvador Barrios, 2020. "Taxation and growth: Why does it matter and how can it be analysed?," Society and Economy, Akadémiai Kiadó, Hungary, vol. 42(4), pages 366-384, December.
    4. van der Wielen, Wouter, 2020. "The macroeconomic effects of tax changes: Evidence using real-time data for the European Union," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 302-321.
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    6. Thibault Lemaire, 2020. "Fiscal Consolidations and Informality in Latin America and the Caribbean," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 20004, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    7. Mahfoudh Hussein Mgammal & Ebrahim Mohammed Al-Matari & Talal Fawzi Alruwaili, 2023. "Value-added-tax rate increases: A comparative study using difference-in-difference with an ARIMA modeling approach," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 10(1), pages 1-17, December.
    8. Santiago Acosta-Ormaechea & Atsuyoshi Morozumi, 2021. "The value-added tax and growth: design matters," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 28(5), pages 1211-1241, October.
    9. Hayley Pallan, 2022. "Sovereign Spreads and Corporate Taxation," IHEID Working Papers 15-2022, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
    10. Nie,Owen, 2020. "Expansionary Fiscal Austerity: New International Evidence," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9344, The World Bank.

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