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The output effects of tax changes: narrative evidence from Spain

Author

Listed:
  • Paula Gil

    (Universidad Complutense de Madrid)

  • Francisco Martí

    (Banco de España)

  • Richard Morris

    (European Central Bank)

  • Javier J. Pérez

    () (Banco de España)

  • Roberto Ramos

    (Banco de España)

Abstract

This paper estimates the GDP impact of legislated tax changes in Spain using a newly constructed narrative record for the period 1986-2015. Our baseline estimates suggest that a 1% of GDP increase in exogenous taxes depresses output by around 1.3% after one year, this negative effect fading away at more distant horizons. We also find that the effect of changes in indirect taxes are larger and that, following a tax increase, investment reacts more than consumption. Overall, our set of estimates is consistent with negative output effects triggered by tax increases, yet the quantitative effects are subject to non-negligible uncertainty that is refected in wide confidence bands, in line with the extant literature for other countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Paula Gil & Francisco Martí & Richard Morris & Javier J. Pérez & Roberto Ramos, 2017. "The output effects of tax changes: narrative evidence from Spain," Working Papers 1721, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
  • Handle: RePEc:bde:wpaper:1721
    as

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    File URL: http://www.bde.es/f/webbde/SES/Secciones/Publicaciones/PublicacionesSeriadas/DocumentosTrabajo/17/Fich/dt1721e.pdf
    File Function: First version, May 2017
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Carlo Favero & Francesco Giavazzi, 2012. "Measuring Tax Multipliers: The Narrative Method in Fiscal VARs," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 69-94, May.
    2. Andrea Pescatori & Daniel Leigh & Jaime Guajardo & Pete Devries, 2011. "A New Action-Based Dataset of Fiscal Consolidation," IMF Working Papers 11/128, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Sebastian Gechert & Christoph Paetz & Paloma Villanueva, 2016. "Top-Down vs. Bottom-Up? Reconcilling the Effects of Tax and Transfer Shocks on Output," IMK Working Paper 169-2016, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. repec:ces:ifosdt:v:70:y:2017:i:12:p:30-83 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Danilo Leiva-Leon, 2017. "Monitoring the Spanish Economy through the Lenses of Structural Bayesian VARs," Occasional Papers 1706, Banco de España;Occasional Papers Homepage.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    tax shocks; narrative record; fiscal policy; GDP growth;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • H20 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - General

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