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Output effects of a measure of tax shocks based on changes in legislation for Portugal

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  • Lara Wemans
  • Manuel Coutinho Pereira

Abstract

This paper develops a new measure of quarterly discretionary tax shocks for Portugal that result from changes in legislation, following the narrative approach. It covers the years from 1996 to 2012 and was based on a comprehensive analysis of tax policy measures taken in the course of this period. The …ndings point to strongly negative and persistent e¤ects of legislated tax increases on GDP and private consumption, matching the tendency of the narrative approach to yield comparatively high tax multipliers.

Suggested Citation

  • Lara Wemans & Manuel Coutinho Pereira, 2013. "Output effects of a measure of tax shocks based on changes in legislation for Portugal," Working Papers w201315, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  • Handle: RePEc:ptu:wpaper:w201315
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    16. Manuel Coutinho Pereira & Lara Wemans, 2015. "Output Effects of a Measure of Tax Shocks Based on Changes in Legislation for Portugal," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 215(4), pages 27-62, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. van der Wielen, Wouter, 2020. "The macroeconomic effects of tax changes: Evidence using real-time data for the European Union," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 302-321.
    2. David Amaglobeli & Valerio Crispolti & Era Dabla-Norris & Pooja Karnane & Florian Misch, 2018. "Tax Policy Measures in Advanced and Emerging Economies: A Novel Database," IMF Working Papers 2018/110, International Monetary Fund.
    3. Manuel Coutinho Pereira & Lara Wemans, 2015. "Output Effects of a Measure of Tax Shocks Based on Changes in Legislation for Portugal," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 215(4), pages 27-62, December.
    4. Salvatore Perdichizzi, 2017. "Estimating Fiscal multipliers in the Eurozone. A Nonlinear Panel Data Approach," DISCE - Working Papers del Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza def058, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    5. Dennis Bonam & Paul Konietschke, 2020. "Tax multipliers across the business cycle," DNB Working Papers 699, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    6. Andrea Boitani & Salvatore Perdichizzi, 2018. "Public Expenditure Multipliers in recessions. Evidence from the Eurozone," DISCE - Working Papers del Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza def068, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    7. Lara Wemans & Manuel Coutinho Pereira, 2013. "The macroeconomic effects of legislated tax changes in Portugal," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    8. Paula Gil & Francisco Martí & Richard Morris & Javier J. Pérez & Roberto Ramos, 2019. "The output effects of tax changes: narrative evidence from Spain," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 10(1), pages 1-23, March.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy

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