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Household debt and the dynamic effects of income tax changes

Author

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  • Cloyne, James

    (Bank of England)

  • Surico, Paolo

    () (London Business School)

Abstract

Using a long span of expenditure survey data and a new narrative measure of exogenous income tax changes for the United Kingdom, we show that households with mortgage debt exhibit large and persistent consumption responses to changes in their income. Homeowners without a mortgage, in contrast, do not appear to react, with responses not statistically different from zero at all horizons. Splitting the sample by age and education yields more limited evidence of heterogeneity as the distributions of these demographics tend to overlap across housing tenure groups. We interpret our findings through the lens of traditional and more recent theories of liquidity constraints, providing a novel interpretation for the aggregate effects of tax changes on the economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Cloyne, James & Surico, Paolo, 2014. "Household debt and the dynamic effects of income tax changes," Bank of England working papers 491, Bank of England.
  • Handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:0491
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Paolo Surico & Clodomiro Ferreira & James Cloyne, 2015. "Housing Debt and the Transmission of Monetary Policy," 2015 Meeting Papers 629, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    2. Gianluca Violante & Benjamin Moll & Greg Kaplan, 2015. "Monetary Policy According to HANK," 2015 Meeting Papers 1507, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    3. Javier Andrés & José E. Boscá & Javier Ferri, 2016. "Instruments, rules, and household debt: the effects of fiscal policy," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 68(2), pages 419-443.
    4. Surico, Paolo & Trezzi, Riccardo, 2015. "Consumer Spending and Fiscal Consolidation: Evidence from a Housing Tax Experiment," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2015-57, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.), revised 20 Jan 2016.
    5. Cloyne, James & Ferreira, Clodomiro & Surico, Paolo, 2015. "Monetary Policy when Households have Debt: New Evidence on the Transmission Mechanism," CEPR Discussion Papers 11023, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Gianluca Violante & Benjamin Moll & Greg Kaplan, 2015. "Monetary Policy According to HANK," 2015 Meeting Papers 1507, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    7. Albrizio, Silvia & Lamp, Stefan, 2014. "The investment effect of fiscal consolidation," Economics Working Papers ECO2014/10, European University Institute.
    8. Greg Kaplan & Giovanni L. Violante & Justin Weidner, 2014. "The Wealthy Hand-to-Mouth," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 48(1 (Spring), pages 77-153.
    9. Kanishka Misra & Paolo Surico, 2014. "Consumption, Income Changes, and Heterogeneity: Evidence from Two Fiscal Stimulus Programs," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 6(4), pages 84-106, October.
    10. Bunn, Philip & Rostom, May, 2014. "Household debt and spending," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 54(3), pages 304-315.
    11. Bunn, Philip & Rostom, May, 2015. "Household debt and spending in the United Kingdom," Bank of England working papers 554, Bank of England.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    mortgage debt; narrative tax changes; liquidity constraints;

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • H31 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - Household

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