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The aggregate effects of government income transfer shocks - EU evidence

Author

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  • Susana Párraga Rodríguez

    () (University College London)

Abstract

This paper estimates the aggregate effect of government income transfer shocks for a sample of EU countries. The new measure of transfer shocks builds on a dataset by public fi nance experts of the European System of Central Banks (ESCB). The identifi cation strategy consists of a narrative analysis of the old-age pension-related policy actions reported in the ESCB dataset. Increases in old-age pensions are found to have a positive impact on aggregate expenditure components and employment consistent with a multiplier effect of between 0 and 1.

Suggested Citation

  • Susana Párraga Rodríguez, 2016. "The aggregate effects of government income transfer shocks - EU evidence," Working Papers 1629, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
  • Handle: RePEc:bde:wpaper:1629
    as

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    File URL: http://www.bde.es/f/webbde/SES/Secciones/Publicaciones/PublicacionesSeriadas/DocumentosTrabajo/16/Fich/dt1629e.pdf
    File Function: First version, December 2016
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Karel Mertens & Morten O. Ravn, 2013. "The Dynamic Effects of Personal and Corporate Income Tax Changes in the United States," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(4), pages 1212-1247, June.
    2. repec:nbr:nberch:13348 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Martin Browning & M. Dolores Collado, 2001. "The Response of Expenditures to Anticipated Income Changes: Panel Data Estimates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(3), pages 681-692, June.
    4. Karel Mertens & Morten O. Ravn, 2012. "Empirical Evidence on the Aggregate Effects of Anticipated and Unanticipated US Tax Policy Shocks," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 145-181, May.
    5. Jonathan A. Parker & Nicholas S. Souleles & David S. Johnson & Robert McClelland, 2013. "Consumer Spending and the Economic Stimulus Payments of 2008," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(6), pages 2530-2553, October.
    6. Nicholas S. Souleles & Jonathan A. Parker & David S. Johnson, 2006. "Household Expenditure and the Income Tax Rebates of 2001," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(5), pages 1589-1610, December.
    7. Olivier Blanchard & Roberto Perotti, 2002. "An Empirical Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending and Taxes on Output," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 117(4), pages 1329-1368.
    8. Sebastian Gechert & Christoph Paetz & Paloma Villanueva, 2016. "Top-Down vs. Bottom-Up? Reconcilling the Effects of Tax and Transfer Shocks on Output," IMK Working Paper 169-2016, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    9. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 2010. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Tax Changes: Estimates Based on a New Measure of Fiscal Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(3), pages 763-801, June.
    10. Valerie A. Ramey, 2011. "Can Government Purchases Stimulate the Economy?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(3), pages 673-685, September.
    11. Poterba, James M, 1988. "Are Consumers Forward Looking? Evidence from Fiscal Experiments," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(2), pages 413-418, May.
    12. Joshua K. Hausman, 2016. "Fiscal Policy and Economic Recovery: The Case of the 1936 Veterans' Bonus," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(4), pages 1100-1143, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    transfer payments; public pensions;

    JEL classification:

    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • I38 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Government Programs; Provision and Effects of Welfare Programs

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