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El efecto de cambios tributarios sobre la actividad económica en Perú: Una aplicación del enfoque narrativo

Author

Listed:
  • Lahura, Erick
  • Castillo, Giovana

Abstract

Este trabajo estima el efecto que tienen los cambios tributarios sobre la actividad económica en Perú. Se utiliza el enfoque narrativo para construir una serie temporal de cambios tributarios exógenos, los cuales son identificados a partir de la revisión de los registros históricos asociados a las leyes que establecieron cambios tributarios. Los datos utilizados son trimestrales y cubren el período 1991-2015. Los resultados muestran que la elasticidad del PBI real respecto de la presión tributaria es aproximadamente -0, 11 en el mismo trimestre en que se produce el cambio tributario y -0, 22 luego de seis trimestres. Además, ante un aumento de impuestos equivalente a 1 % del PBI, la presión tributaria se reduce contemporáneamente en 0, 28 puntos porcentuales y alcanza una caída máxima de 0, 49 puntos porcentuales luego de siete trimestres. Estos resultados implican que una reducción de impuestos puede tener un efecto positivo y transitorio sobre la actividad económica; sin embargo, dicho efecto no es suficiente para recuperar la recaudación que se sacrificaría inicialmente. Cabe señalar que estos resultados son de corto plazo y no toman en cuenta la reacción del gasto del gobierno ni el efecto final sobre el déficit público y la sostenibilidad fiscal.

Suggested Citation

  • Lahura, Erick & Castillo, Giovana, 2018. "El efecto de cambios tributarios sobre la actividad económica en Perú: Una aplicación del enfoque narrativo," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 36, pages 31-53.
    • Handle: RePEc:rbp:esteco:ree-36-02
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Jiménez, Alvaro & Rodríguez, Gabriel & Ataurima Arellano, Miguel, 2023. "Time-varying impact of fiscal shocks over GDP growth in Peru: An empirical application using hybrid TVP-VAR-SV models," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 314-332.
    2. Meléndez, Alexander & Rodríguez, Gabriel, 2025. "Evolving impacts of fiscal policy on macroeconomic fluctuations in Peru," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 1135-1158.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H20 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - General
    • N16 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Latin America; Caribbean

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