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Tax multipliers and monetary policy: Evidence from a threshold model

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  • Jones, Paul M.
  • Olson, Eric

Abstract

Romer and Romer (2010) use the narrative record to generate a time series of exogenous shocks to fiscal policy. They report a tax multiplier of 3.0. We extend their analysis and allow for nonlinearities between their shocks and the effects on output by estimating a threshold regression model. Using Hansen’s (1997) procedure, we find the best fitting threshold is changes in the federal fund rate with a delay of two quarters. Moreover, we find that the tax multiplier is approximately 4.3 if accompanied by an accommodative monetary policy and approximately 1.2 under tight monetary policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Jones, Paul M. & Olson, Eric, 2014. "Tax multipliers and monetary policy: Evidence from a threshold model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 122(2), pages 116-118.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:122:y:2014:i:2:p:116-118
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2013.11.001
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 2010. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Tax Changes: Estimates Based on a New Measure of Fiscal Shocks," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(3), pages 763-801, June.
    2. Valerie A. Ramey, 2011. "Can Government Purchases Stimulate the Economy?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(3), pages 673-685, September.
    3. Ben S. Bernanke & Ilian Mihov, 1998. "Measuring Monetary Policy," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 113(3), pages 869-902.
    4. Hansen Bruce E., 1997. "Inference in TAR Models," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 2(1), pages 1-16, April.
    5. Olivier Blanchard & Roberto Perotti, 2002. "An Empirical Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending and Taxes on Output," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(4), pages 1329-1368.
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    1. Jones, Paul M. & Olson, Eric & Wohar, Mark E., 2015. "Asymmetric tax multipliers," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 38-48.
    2. Lahura, Erick & Castillo, Giovana, 2018. "El efecto de cambios tributarios sobre la actividad económica en Perú: Una aplicación del enfoque narrativo," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 36, pages 31-53.
    3. Arin, K. Peren & Devereux, Kevin & Mazur, Mieszko, 2023. "Taxes and firm investment," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).

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