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On the predictability of narrative fiscal adjustments

Author

Listed:
  • Pablo Hernández de Cos

    (Banco de España)

  • Enrique Moral-Benito

    (Banco de España)

Abstract

In an influential paper, Devries et al. (2011) construct narrative series of tax- and spending-based fiscal adjustments for a panel of OECD countries. In this paper, we find that the adjustments based on spending cuts can be predicted on the basis of past output growth and other macroeconomic variables. Moreover, we illustrate that this source of endogeneity may generate significant differences in the estimated multipliers.

Suggested Citation

  • Pablo Hernández de Cos & Enrique Moral-Benito, 2015. "On the predictability of narrative fiscal adjustments," Working Papers 1516, Banco de España.
    • Handle: RePEc:bde:wpaper:1516
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    File URL: http://www.bde.es/f/webbde/SES/Secciones/Publicaciones/PublicacionesSeriadas/DocumentosTrabajo/15/Fich/dt1516e.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Juan S. Mora-Sanguinetti & Nuno Garoupa, 2015. "Litigation in Spain 2001-2010: Exploring the market for legar services," Working Papers 1505, Banco de España.
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    Cited by:

    1. Breuer, Christian, 2017. "Expansionary Austerity and Reverse Causality," MPRA Paper 77556, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Antonio De Vito & Martin Jacob & Dirk Schindler & Guosong Xu, 2023. "How Do Corporate Tax Hikes Affect Investment Allocation within Multinationals?," CESifo Working Paper Series 10272, CESifo.
    3. Ms. Era Dabla-Norris & Frederico Lima, 2018. "Macroeconomic Effects of Tax Rate and Base Changes: Evidence from Fiscal Consolidations," IMF Working Papers 2018/220, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Alberto Alesina & Carlo Favero & Francesco Giavazzi, 2019. "Effects of Austerity: Expenditure- and Tax-Based Approaches," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 33(2), pages 141-162, Spring.
    5. Georgios Karras, 2019. "Macroeconomic Effects of Tax Changes: Evidence from a Sample of OECD Countries," SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, SPOUDAI Journal of Economics and Business, University of Piraeus, vol. 69(3), pages 111-138, July-Sept.
    6. Cláudia Braz & Maria Manuel Campos, 2021. "Challenges in measuring fiscal effects," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    7. Alberto Alesina & Gualtiero Azzalini & Carlo Favero & Francesco Giavazzi & Armando Miano, 2018. "Is it the “How” or the “When” that Matters in Fiscal Adjustments?," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 66(1), pages 144-188, March.
    8. Paula Gil & Francisco Martí & Richard Morris & Javier J. Pérez & Roberto Ramos, 2019. "The output effects of tax changes: narrative evidence from Spain," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 10(1), pages 1-23, March.
    9. Bardaka, Ioanna & Bournakis, Ioannis & Kaplanoglou, Georgia, 2021. "Total factor productivity (TFP) and fiscal consolidation: How harmful is austerity?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 908-922.
    10. van der Wielen, Wouter, 2020. "The macroeconomic effects of tax changes: Evidence using real-time data for the European Union," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 302-321.
    11. Dabla-Norris, Era & Lima, Frederico, 2023. "Macroeconomic effects of tax rate and base changes: Evidence from fiscal consolidations," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    12. Tafuro, Andrea, 2023. "Labour market rigidity and expansionary austerity," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    13. Christian Breuer, 2019. "State Expansionary Austerity and Reverse Causality: A Critique of the Conventional Approach," Working Papers Series 98, Institute for New Economic Thinking.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    fiscal adjustment; fiscal multiplier;

    JEL classification:

    • H60 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - General
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory

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