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Lagging behind: the hysteresis of austerity

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  • Andrea Tafuro

    (Copenhagen Business School)

Abstract

This paper investigates the role of hysteresis in the long-term transmission of consolidations in a panel of 17 OECD countries. The evidence supports that the hysteresis of the labour market is the main driver of consolidations’ long-term effects: an increase in the rigidity of the labour market exacerbates and prolongs the contraction following tax-based consolidations, while it mutes the expansion following expenditure-based consolidations. In contrast, the response of productivity is irrelevant to the presence of the long-term scars.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrea Tafuro, 2024. "Lagging behind: the hysteresis of austerity," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 66(1), pages 327-368, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:empeco:v:66:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1007_s00181-023-02451-5
    DOI: 10.1007/s00181-023-02451-5
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Consolidations; Fiscal policy; Hysteresis; Labour market rigidity; Potential growth;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory

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