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Hysteresis and Fiscal Policy

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  • Philipp Engler
  • Juha Tervala

Abstract

Empirical studies support the hysteresis hypothesis that recessions have a permanent effect on the level of output. We analyze the implications of hysteresis for fiscal policy in a DSGE model. We assume a simple learning-by-doing mechanism where demand-driven changes in employment can affect the level of productivity permanently, leading to hysteresis in output. We show that the fiscal output multiplier is much larger in the presence of hysteresis and that the welfare multiplier of fiscal policy - the consumption equivalent change in welfare for one dollar change in public spending - is positive (negative) in the presence (absence) of hysteresis. The main bene.t of accommodative fiscal policy in the presence of hysteresis is to diminish the damage of a recession to the long-term level of productivity and, thus, output.

Suggested Citation

  • Philipp Engler & Juha Tervala, 2016. "Hysteresis and Fiscal Policy," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1631, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  • Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwpp:dp1631
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Boitani, Andrea & Punzo, Chiara, 2019. "Banks’ leverage behaviour in a two-agent new Keynesian model," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 347-359.
    2. Qiang Xu & Qianqian Hu & Tachia Chin & Chen Chen & Yi Shi & Jianxin Xu, 2019. "How Supply Chain Integration Affects Innovation in a Digital Age: Moderating Effects of Sustainable Policy," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 11(19), pages 1-17, October.
    3. Fatás, Antonio & Summers, Lawrence H., 2018. "The permanent effects of fiscal consolidations," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 238-250.
    4. Tervala, Juha, 2020. "Hysteresis and the Welfare Costs of Business Cycles," MPRA Paper 99758, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Antonello D'Alessandro & Giulio Fella & Leonardo Melosi, 2019. "Fiscal Stimulus With Learning‐By‐Doing," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 60(3), pages 1413-1432, August.
    6. Robert Calvert Jump & Engelbert Stockhammer, 2019. "Reconsidering the natural rate hypothesis," FMM Working Paper 45-2019, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal policy; hysteresis; learning by doing; welfare;

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles

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