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Hysteresis and fiscal policy

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  • Engler, Philipp
  • Tervala, Juha

Abstract

Empirical studies support the hysteresis hypothesis that recessions have a permanent effect on the level of output. We analyze the implications of hysteresis for fiscal policy in a DSGE model. We assume a simple learning-by-doing mechanism where demand-driven changes in employment can affect the level of productivity permanently, leading to hysteresis in output. We show that the fiscal output multiplier is much larger in the presence of hysteresis and that the welfare multiplier of fiscal policy–the consumption equivalent change in welfare for one dollar change in public spending–is positive (negative) in the presence (absence) of hysteresis. The main benefit of accommodative fiscal policy in the presence of hysteresis is to diminish the damage of a recession to the long-term level of productivity and, thus, output.

Suggested Citation

  • Engler, Philipp & Tervala, Juha, 2018. "Hysteresis and fiscal policy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 39-53.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:93:y:2018:i:c:p:39-53
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2018.02.002
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. repec:nbr:nberch:13962 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Giulio Fella & Antonello d'Alessandro, 2017. "Fiscal Stimulus with Learning-By-Doing," Working Papers 826, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    3. Fatás, Antonio & Summers, Lawrence H., 2018. "The permanent effects of fiscal consolidations," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 238-250.
    4. Andrea Boitani & Chiara Punzo, 2018. "Banks’ leverage behaviour in a two-agent New Keynesian model," DEM Working Papers Series 150, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Management.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal policy; Hysteresis; Learning by doing; Welfare;

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles

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