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Long-term effects of fiscal stimulus and austerity in Europe

Author

Listed:
  • Sebastian Gechert

    (Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK), Düsseldorf)

  • Gustav Horn
  • Christoph Paetz

Abstract

We analyze whether there are negative (positive) long-term effects of austerity measures (stimulus measures) on potential output growth. Based on the approach of Blanchard and Leigh (2013) and Fatás and Summers (2016) and using a novel dataset of narratively identified fiscal policy shocks, we estimate the impact of these shocks on potential output. We robustly find a considerable underestimation of multiplier effects and their persistence for most European countries in the early years after the financial crisis and subsequent Euro Area crisis. We conclude that austerity was badly timed and thus not only deepened the crisis but may have caused evitable hysteresis effects.

Suggested Citation

  • Sebastian Gechert & Gustav Horn & Christoph Paetz, 2018. "Long-term effects of fiscal stimulus and austerity in Europe," Working Papers 2018.04, International Network for Economic Research - INFER.
    • Handle: RePEc:inf:wpaper:2018.04
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    Cited by:

    1. Jungmann, Benjamin, 2021. "Growth drivers in emerging capitalist economies before and after the Global Financial Crisis," IPE Working Papers 172/2021, Berlin School of Economics and Law, Institute for International Political Economy (IPE).
    2. Pham, Binh Thai & Sala, Hector, 2019. "Government Deficit Shocks and Okun's Coefficient Volatility: New Insights on the Austerity versus Growth Debate," IZA Discussion Papers 12492, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    3. Fatás, Antonio & Summers, Lawrence H., 2018. "The permanent effects of fiscal consolidations," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 238-250.
    4. Karsten Kohler & Engelbert Stockhammer, 2022. "Growing differently? Financial cycles, austerity, and competitiveness in growth models since the Global Financial Crisis," Review of International Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(4), pages 1314-1341, July.
    5. van der Wielen, Wouter, 2020. "The macroeconomic effects of tax changes: Evidence using real-time data for the European Union," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 302-321.
    6. Feng-Li Lin & Wen-Yi Chen, 2020. "Did the Consumption Voucher Scheme Stimulate the Economy? Evidence from Smooth Time-Varying Cointegration Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(12), pages 1-16, June.
    7. Antonio Fatás, 2019. "Fiscal Policy, Potential Output, and the Shifting Goalposts," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 67(3), pages 684-702, September.
    8. Paternesi Meloni, Walter & Romaniello, Davide & Stirati, Antonella, 2022. "Inflation and the NAIRU: assessing the role of long-term unemployment as a cause of hysteresis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    9. Jan Priewe, 2020. "Why 60 and 3 percent? European debt and deficit rules - critique and alternatives," IMK Studies 66-2020, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    10. Krebs, Tom, 2022. "Economic consequences of a sudden stop of energy imports: The case of natural gas in Germany," ZEW Discussion Papers 22-021, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    11. Piotr Ciżkowicz & Grzegorz Parosa & Andrzej Rzońca, 2022. "Fiscal tensions and risk premium," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 49(3), pages 833-896, August.
    12. Emiliano Brancaccio & Fabiana De Cristofaro, 2020. "Inside the IMF Òmea culpaÓ: A panel analysis on growth forecast errors and Keynesian multipliers in Europe," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 73(294), pages 225-239.
    13. Christos Pierros, 2021. "Assessing the internal devaluation policy implemented in Greece in an empirical stock‐flow consistent model," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 72(4), pages 905-943, November.
    14. Julio Revuelta, 2021. "The Effects of the Economic Adjustment Programmes for Greece: A Quasi-Experimental Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(9), pages 1-15, April.
    15. Christian Breuer, 2021. "Structural Indicators and the Fiscal Uncertainty Principle," Intereconomics: Review of European Economic Policy, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics;Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS), vol. 56(4), pages 182-183, July.
    16. Barbieri Góes, Maria Cristina & Deleidi, Matteo, 2022. "Output determination and autonomous demand multipliers: An empirical investigation for the US economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 116(C).
    17. Lechthaler, Wolfgang & Tesfaselassie, Mewael F., 2021. "Endogenous growth, skill obsolescence and fiscal multipliers," Kiel Working Papers 2184, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    18. Stefano Di Bucchianico, 2021. "Negative Interest Rate Policy to Fight Secular Stagnation: Unfeasible, Ineffective, Irrelevant, or Inadequate?," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(4), pages 687-710, October.
    19. Christoph Peatz, 2020. "Fiscal Rules in Good Times and Bad," IMK Working Paper 206-2020, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
    20. Sardoni, Claudio, 2021. "The public debt and the Ricardian equivalence: Some critical remarks," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 153-160.
    21. Sebastian Gechert & Christoph Paetz & Achim Truger, 2020. "Konjunkturpaket notwendig — Rückkehr zur Schuldenbremse nicht forcieren," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 100(7), pages 493-497, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal Consolidation; Fiscal Multipliers; Forecast Errors; Hysteresis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics
    • H - Public Economics

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