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Austerity in the Aftermath of the Great Recession

Listed author(s):
  • Christopher L. House
  • Christian Proebsting
  • Linda L. Tesar

We examine austerity in advanced economies since the Great Recession. Austerity shocks are reductions in government purchases that exceed reduced-form forecasts. Austerity shocks are statistically associated with lower real GDP, lower inflation and higher net exports. We estimate a cross-sectional multiplier of roughly 2. A multi-country DSGE model calibrated to 29 advanced economies generates a multiplier consistent with the data. Counterfactuals suggest that eliminating austerity would have substantially reduced output losses in Europe. Austerity shocks were sufficiently contractionary that debt-to-GDP ratios in some European countries increased as a consequence of endogenous reductions in GDP and tax revenue.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 23147.

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Date of creation: Feb 2017
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:23147
Note: EFG IFM ME
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  1. Mendoza, Enrique G. & Razin, Assaf & Tesar, Linda L., 1994. "Effective tax rates in macroeconomics: Cross-country estimates of tax rates on factor incomes and consumption," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 297-323, December.
  2. Robert E. Hall, 2009. "By How Much Does GDP Rise if the Government Buys More Output?," NBER Working Papers 15496, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Juha Kilponen, Massimiliano Pisani, Sebastian Schmidt, Vesna Corbo, Tibor Hledik, Josef Hollmayr, Samuel Hurtado, Paulo Júlio, Dmitry Kulikov, Matthieu Lemoine, Matija Lozej, Henrik Lundvall, José R. , 2015. "Comparing fiscal multipliers across models and countries in Europe," Working Paper Research 278, National Bank of Belgium.
  4. Valerie A. Ramey & Sarah Zubairy, 2014. "Government Spending Multipliers in Good Times and in Bad: Evidence from U.S. Historical Data," NBER Working Papers 20719, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Woodford, Michael & WALSH, CARL E., 2005. "Interest And Prices: Foundations Of A Theory Of Monetary Policy," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 9(03), pages 462-468, June.
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