IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/een/camaaa/2016-10.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The post-crisis slump in the Euro area and the US: evidence from an estimated three-region DSGE model

Author

Listed:
  • Robert Kollmann
  • Beatrice Pataracchia
  • Rafal Raciborski
  • Marco Ratto
  • Werner Roeger
  • Lukas Vogel

Abstract

The global financial crisis (2008-09) led to a sharp contraction in both Euro Area (EA) and US real activity, and was followed by a long-lasting slump. However, the post-crisis adjustment in the EA and the US shows striking differences - in particular, the EA slump has been markedly more protracted. We estimate a three-region (EA, US and Rest of World) New Keynesian DSGE model (using quarterly data for 1999-2014) to quantify the drivers of the divergent EA and US adjustment paths. Our results suggest that financial shocks were key drivers of the 2008-09 Great Recession, for both the EA and the US. The post-2009 slump in the EA mainly reflects a combination of adverse aggregate demand and supply shocks, in particular lower productivity growth, and persistent adverse shocks to capital investment, linked to the continuing poor health of the EA financial system. Adverse financial shocks were less persistent for the US. The financial shocks identified by the model are consistent with observed performance indicators of the EA and US banking systems.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert Kollmann & Beatrice Pataracchia & Rafal Raciborski & Marco Ratto & Werner Roeger & Lukas Vogel, 2016. "The post-crisis slump in the Euro area and the US: evidence from an estimated three-region DSGE model," CAMA Working Papers 2016-10, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  • Handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2016-10
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://cama.crawford.anu.edu.au/sites/default/files/publication/cama_crawford_anu_edu_au/2016-02/10_2016_kollmann_pataracchia_raciborski_ratto_roeger_vogel.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robert Kollmann & Marco Ratto & Werner Roeger & Jan in't Veld & Lukas Vogel, 2015. "What drives the German current account? And how does it affect other EU Member States?," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 30(81), pages 47-93.
    2. Chiara Fratto & Harald Uhlig, 2014. "Accounting for Post-Crisis Inflation and Employment: A Retro Analysis," NBER Working Papers 20707, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Marco Del Negro & Marc P. Giannoni & Frank Schorfheide, 2015. "Inflation in the Great Recession and New Keynesian Models," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 168-196, January.
    4. Guerrieri, Luca & Iacoviello, Matteo, 2015. "OccBin: A toolkit for solving dynamic models with occasionally binding constraints easily," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 22-38.
    5. Olivier Blanchard & Jordi Galí, 2007. "Real Wage Rigidities and the New Keynesian Model," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(s1), pages 35-65, February.
    6. in 't Veld, Jan & Kollmann, Robert & Pataracchia, Beatrice & Ratto, Marco & Roeger, Werner, 2014. "International capital flows and the boom-bust cycle in Spain," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(PB), pages 314-335.
    7. Robert Kollmann, 2013. "Global Banks, Financial Shocks, and International Business Cycles: Evidence from an Estimated Model," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(s2), pages 159-195, December.
    8. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin S. Eichenbaum & Mathias Trabandt, 2015. "Understanding the Great Recession," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 110-167, January.
    9. Robert E. Hall, 2011. "The High Sensitivity of Economic Activity to Financial Frictions," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 121(552), pages 351-378, May.
    10. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1999. "Monetary policy and asset price volatility," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 77-128.
    11. Baumann, Ursel & Albuquerque, Bruno & Krustev, Georgi, 2014. "Has US household deleveraging ended? a model-based estimate of equilibrium debt," Working Paper Series 1643, European Central Bank.
    12. Jacob, Punnoose & Peersman, Gert, 2013. "Dissecting the dynamics of the US trade balance in an estimated equilibrium model," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(2), pages 302-315.
    13. Günter Coenen & Christopher J. Erceg & Charles Freedman & Davide Furceri & Michael Kumhof & René Lalonde & Douglas Laxton & Jesper Lindé & Annabelle Mourougane & Dirk Muir & Susanna Mursula & Carlos d, 2012. "Effects of Fiscal Stimulus in Structural Models," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 22-68, January.
    14. Ratto, Marco & Roeger, Werner & Veld, Jan in 't, 2009. "QUEST III: An estimated open-economy DSGE model of the euro area with fiscal and monetary policy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 222-233, January.
    15. Günter Coenen & Giovanni Lombardo & Frank Smets & Roland Straub, 2007. "International Transmission and Monetary Policy Cooperation," NBER Chapters,in: International Dimensions of Monetary Policy, pages 157-192 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Shekhar Aiyar & Wolfgang Bergthaler & Jose M Garrido & Anna Ilyina & Andreas Jobst & Kenneth H Kang & Dmitriy Kovtun & Yan Liu & Dermot Monaghan & Marina Moretti, 2015. "A Strategy for Resolving Europe's Problem Loans," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 15/19, International Monetary Fund.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Albonico, Alice & Calès, Ludovic & Cardani, Roberta & Croitorov, Olga & Ferroni, Filippo & Giovannini, Massimo & Hohberger, Stefan & Pataracchia, Beatrice & Pericoli, Filippo & Raciborski, Rafal & Rat, 2017. "The Global Multi-Country Model (GM): an Estimated DSGE Model for the Euro Area Countries," Working Papers 2017-10, Joint Research Centre, European Commission (Ispra site).
    2. Alice, Albonico & Alessia, Paccagnini & Patrizio, Tirelli, 2016. "PIIGS in the Euro Area. An Empirical DSGE Model," Working Papers 331, University of Milano-Bicocca, Department of Economics, revised 11 Mar 2016.
    3. Giovannini, Massimo & Hohberger, Stefan & Kollmann, Robert & Ratto, Marco & Roeger, Werner & Vogel, Lukas, 2018. "Euro Area and U.S. External Adjustment: The Role of Commodity Prices and Emerging Market Shocks," MPRA Paper 88664, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. HOHBERGER, Stefan; PRIFTIS, Romanos; VOGEL, Lukas, 2017. "The macroeconomic effects of quantitative easing in the Euro area : evidence from an estimated DSGE model," Economics Working Papers ECO2017/04, European University Institute.
    5. Robert Kollmann, 2017. "Explaining International Business Cycle Synchronization: Recursive Preferences and the Terms of Trade Channel," Working Papers ECARES ECARES 2017-08, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    6. repec:eee:dyncon:v:81:y:2017:i:c:p:140-161 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Philipp Pfeiffer, 2017. "How much Keynes and how much Schumpeter? An Estimated Macromodel of the US Economy," 2017 Meeting Papers 324, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    8. Maximilian Goedl, 2017. "The Sovereign-Bank Interaction in the Eurozone Crisis," Graz Economics Papers 2017-10, University of Graz, Department of Economics.
    9. Hetzel, Robert L., 2017. "What Remains of Milton Friedman's Monetarism?," Working Paper 17-9, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    10. Kollmann, Robert & Pataracchia, Beatrice & Raciborski, Rafal & Ratto, Marco & Roeger, Werner & Vogel, Lukas, 2017. "Drivers of the Post-Crisis Slump in the Eurozone and the US," MPRA Paper 78826, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Hetzel, Robert L., 2016. "What Caused the Great Recession in the Eurozone?," Working Paper 16-10, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    12. Albonico, Alice & Paccagnini, Alessia & Tirelli, Patrizio, 2017. "Great recession, slow recovery and muted fiscal policies in the US," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 140-161.
    13. Georgiadis, Georgios & Jancokova, Martina, 2017. "Financial Globalisation, Monetary Policy Spillovers and Macro-modelling: Tales from 1001 Shocks," Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper 314, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    14. Robert Kollmann, 2017. "Explaining International Business Cycle Synchronization," 2017 Meeting Papers 1489, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    15. Kollmann, Robert & Leeper, Eric & Roeger, Werner, 2016. "The Post-Crisis Slump," MPRA Paper 71291, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Kollmann, Robert, 2017. "The Post-Crisis Slump in the Euro Area and the US," MPRA Paper 78233, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Cozzi, Guido & Pataracchia, Beatrice & Pfeiffer, Philipp & Marco, Ratto, 2017. "How much Keynes and how much Schumpeter? An Estimated Macromodel of the US Economy," Working Papers 2017-01, Joint Research Centre, European Commission (Ispra site).
    18. Beqiraj, Elton & Di Bartolomeo, Giovanni & Di Pietro, Marco & Serpieri, Carolina, 2018. "Comparing Central Europe and the Baltic macro-economies: A Bayesian approach," EconStor Preprints 175242, ZBW - German National Library of Economics.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Post-crisis slump; Euro Area; United States; estimated DSGE model; demand and supply shocks and financial shocks;

    JEL classification:

    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2016-10. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Cama Admin). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/asanuau.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.