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The post-crisis slump in the Euro area and the US: evidence from an estimated three-region DSGE model

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  • Robert Kollmann
  • Beatrice Pataracchia
  • Rafal Raciborski
  • Marco Ratto
  • Werner Roeger
  • Lukas Vogel

Abstract

The global financial crisis (2008-09) led to a sharp contraction in both Euro Area (EA) and US real activity, and was followed by a long-lasting slump. However, the post-crisis adjustment in the EA and the US shows striking differences - in particular, the EA slump has been markedly more protracted. We estimate a three-region (EA, US and Rest of World) New Keynesian DSGE model (using quarterly data for 1999-2014) to quantify the drivers of the divergent EA and US adjustment paths. Our results suggest that financial shocks were key drivers of the 2008-09 Great Recession, for both the EA and the US. The post-2009 slump in the EA mainly reflects a combination of adverse aggregate demand and supply shocks, in particular lower productivity growth, and persistent adverse shocks to capital investment, linked to the continuing poor health of the EA financial system. Adverse financial shocks were less persistent for the US. The financial shocks identified by the model are consistent with observed performance indicators of the EA and US banking systems.

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  • Robert Kollmann & Beatrice Pataracchia & Rafal Raciborski & Marco Ratto & Werner Roeger & Lukas Vogel, 2016. "The post-crisis slump in the Euro area and the US: evidence from an estimated three-region DSGE model," CAMA Working Papers 2016-10, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    • Handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2016-10
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Post-crisis slump; Euro Area; United States; estimated DSGE model; demand and supply shocks and financial shocks;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • E2 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling

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