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Euro Area and U.S. External Adjustment: The Role of Commodity Prices and Emerging Market Shocks

Author

Listed:
  • Giovannini, Massimo
  • Hohberger, Stefan
  • Kollmann, Robert
  • Ratto, Marco
  • Roeger, Werner
  • Vogel, Lukas

Abstract

The trade balances of the Euro Area (EA) and of the US have improved markedly after the Global Financial Crisis. This paper quantifies the drivers of EA and US economic fluctuations and external adjustment, using an estimated (1999-2017) three-region (US, EA, rest of world) DSGE model with trade in manufactured goods and in commodities. In the model, commodity prices reflect global demand and supply conditions. The paper highlights the key contribution of the post-crisis collapse in commodity prices for the EA and US trade balance reversal. Aggregate demand shocks originating in Emerging Markets too had a significant impact on EA and US trade balances. The broader lesson of this paper is that Emerging Markets and commodity shocks are major drivers of advanced countries' trade balances and terms of trade.

Suggested Citation

  • Giovannini, Massimo & Hohberger, Stefan & Kollmann, Robert & Ratto, Marco & Roeger, Werner & Vogel, Lukas, 2018. "Euro Area and U.S. External Adjustment: The Role of Commodity Prices and Emerging Market Shocks," CEPR Discussion Papers 13141, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:13141
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Robert Kollmann & Marco Ratto & Werner Roeger & Jan in't Veld & Lukas Vogel, 2015. "What drives the German current account? And how does it affect other EU Member States?," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 30(81), pages 47-93.
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    Cited by:

    1. Gert Peersman, 2018. "International Food Commodity Prices And Missing (Dis)Inflation In The Euro Area," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 18/947, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    commodity markets; EA and US external adjustment; emerging markets;

    JEL classification:

    • F2 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

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