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Financial crises and sudden stops: Was the European monetary union crisis different?

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  • Albonico, Alice
  • Tirelli, Patrizio

Abstract

We estimate a two-region model of the Euro area, with the purpose of identifying the shocks that caused the 2008–2009 recession and the subsequent 2010 sovereign bond crisis. One striking result is that both crises were demand-driven in the core Euro area countries, whereas region-specific permanent technology shocks explain most of the output growth slowdown in the peripheral countries. Adverse technology shocks became particularly important during the sovereign bond crisis. This is in line with cross-country evidence on the effects of sudden stops.

Suggested Citation

  • Albonico, Alice & Tirelli, Patrizio, 2020. "Financial crises and sudden stops: Was the European monetary union crisis different?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 13-26.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:93:y:2020:i:c:p:13-26
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2020.06.021
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    PIIGS; Euro crisis; Two-country DSGE; Sudden stops;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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