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The Global Multi-Country Model (GM): an Estimated DSGE Model for the Euro Area Countries

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Abstract

This paper presents the European Commission's Global Multi-country model (the GM model). The GM model is an estimated multi-country DSGE model, developed by the European Commission, that can be used for spillover analysis, forecasting and medium term projections. Its development is jointly performed by the Joint Research Centre and DG ECFIN. Since the GM model is developed to be flexible under different country configurations,we present the GM model in its configuration designed for EMU-countries (GM3-EMU), which has been estimated for the four largest European economies (Germany, France, Italy and Spain). We analyse business cycle properties, present the model fit and provide a quantitative assessment of the relative importance that supply, demand and international shocks as well as discretionary policy interventions had in explaining the cyclical patterns observed in each country since the establishment of the EMU.

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  • Albonico, Alice & Calès, Ludovic & Cardani, Roberta & Croitorov, Olga & Ferroni, Filippo & Giovannini, Massimo & Hohberger, Stefan & Pataracchia, Beatrice & Pericoli, Filippo & Raciborski, Rafal & Rat, 2017. "The Global Multi-Country Model (GM): an Estimated DSGE Model for the Euro Area Countries," Working Papers 2017-10, Joint Research Centre, European Commission (Ispra site).
  • Handle: RePEc:jrs:wpaper:201710
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    3. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Tiziano Ropele, 2020. "Inflation Expectations and Firm Decisions: New Causal Evidence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 135(1), pages 165-219.
    4. Varthalitis, Petros, 2019. "FIR-GEM: A SOE-DSGE Model for fiscal policy analysis in Ireland," Papers WP620, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    5. Cardani, Roberta & Hohberger, Stefan & Pfeiffer, Philipp & Vogel, Lukas, 2020. "Domestic versus foreign drivers of trade (im)balances: How robust is evidence from estimated DSGE models," Working Papers 2020-05, Joint Research Centre, European Commission (Ispra site).
    6. Albonico, Alice & Calés, Ludovic & Cardani, Roberta & Croitorov, Olga & Ferroni, Filippo & Giovannini, Massimo & Hohberger, Stefan & Pataracchia, Beatrice & Pericoli, Filippo Maria & Raciborski, Rafal, 2019. "Comparing post-crisis dynamics across Euro Area countries with the Global Multi-country model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 242-273.
    7. Bańkowski, Krzysztof & Ferdinandusse, Marien & Hauptmeier, Sebastian & Jacquinot, Pascal & Valenta, Vilém, 2021. "The macroeconomic impact of the Next Generation EU instrument on the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 255, European Central Bank.
    8. Charalampidis, Nikolaos, 2020. "On unemployment cycles in the Euro Area, 1999–2018," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    9. Giovannini, Massimo & Pfeiffer, Philipp & Ratto, Marco, 2021. "Efficient and robust inference of models with occasionally binding constraints," Working Papers 2021-03, Joint Research Centre, European Commission (Ispra site).
    10. Horst, Maximilian & Neyer, Ulrike & Stempel, Daniel, 2020. "Asymmetric macroeconomic effects of QE-induced increases in excess reserves in a monetary union," DICE Discussion Papers 346, University of Düsseldorf, Düsseldorf Institute for Competition Economics (DICE).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    DSGE; Bayesian estimation; EMU; Business cycle; Model fit; Cross-country comparison;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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