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Adjustment dynamics and business cycle heterogeneity in the EMU: Evidence from estimated DSGE models

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Abstract

The paper reviews adjustment dynamics in the EMU on the basis of estimated DSGE models for four large EA Member States (DE, FR, IT, ES). We compare the response of the four countries to identical shocks and find a particularly strong response of employment and wages in ES, a high sensitivity of IT to investment-related shocks, and a comparatively strong impact of global shocks on the DE economy. We also perform counterfactual exercises that apply the estimated shocks and parameters for ES to DE, FR, and IT. The counterfactual simulations suggest that differences in shocks have been important for GDP growth differentials, and together with structural differences also contributed to differences in employment fluctuations across the four countries considered.

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  • Giovannini, Massimo & Hohberger, Stefan & Ratto, Marco & Vogel, Lukas, 2018. "Adjustment dynamics and business cycle heterogeneity in the EMU: Evidence from estimated DSGE models," Working Papers 2018-08, Joint Research Centre, European Commission (Ispra site).
  • Handle: RePEc:jrs:wpaper:201808
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Estimated DSGE; adjustment dynamics; business cycles; EMU; counterfactuals;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles
    • F45 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Macroeconomic Issues of Monetary Unions

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