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The Global Multi-Country Model (GM): An Estimated DSGE Model for Euro Area Countries

Author

Listed:
  • Alice Albonico
  • Ludovic Calés
  • Roberta Cardani
  • Olga Croitorov
  • Fabio Di Dio
  • Filippo Ferroni
  • Massimo Giovannini
  • Stefan Hohberger
  • Beatrice Pataracchia
  • Filippo Pericoli
  • Philipp Pfeiffer
  • Rafal Raciborski
  • Marco Ratto
  • Werner Roeger
  • Lukas Vogel

Abstract

This paper introduces the Global Multi-country (GM) model, an estimated multi-country Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model of the world economy. We present the model in 3-region configurations for Euro area (EA) countries that include an individual EA Member State, the rest of the EA (REA), and the rest of the world (RoW). We provide and compare estimates of this model structure for the four largest EA countries (Germany, France, Italy, and Spain). The novelty of the paper is the estimation of ex-ante identical country models on the basis of a unified information set, which allows for clean crosscountry comparison of parameter estimates and drivers of economic dynamics. The paper also provides an overview of applications of the GM model such as the structural interpretation of business cycle dynamics, the contribution to the European Commission’s economic forecast, the scenario analysis and policy counterfactuals.

Suggested Citation

  • Alice Albonico & Ludovic Calés & Roberta Cardani & Olga Croitorov & Fabio Di Dio & Filippo Ferroni & Massimo Giovannini & Stefan Hohberger & Beatrice Pataracchia & Filippo Pericoli & Philipp Pfeiffer , 2019. "The Global Multi-Country Model (GM): An Estimated DSGE Model for Euro Area Countries," European Economy - Discussion Papers 2015 - 102, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  • Handle: RePEc:euf:dispap:102
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    Cited by:

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    2. Klug, Thorsten & Mayer, Eric & Schuler, Tobias, 2022. "The corporate saving glut and the current account in Germany," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    3. Giovannini, Massimo & Hohberger, Stefan & Ratto, Marco & Vogel, Lukas, 2018. "Adjustment dynamics and business cycle heterogeneity in the EMU: Evidence from estimated DSGE models," Working Papers 2018-08, Joint Research Centre, European Commission.
    4. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Tiziano Ropele, 2020. "Inflation Expectations and Firm Decisions: New Causal Evidence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 135(1), pages 165-219.
    5. Albonico, Alice & Tirelli, Patrizio, 2020. "Financial crises and sudden stops: Was the European monetary union crisis different?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 13-26.
    6. Cardani, Roberta & Hohberger, Stefan & Pfeiffer, Philipp & Vogel, Lukas, 2022. "Domestic versus foreign drivers of trade (im)balances: How robust is evidence from estimated DSGE models?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    7. Albonico, Alice & Calés, Ludovic & Cardani, Roberta & Croitorov, Olga & Ferroni, Filippo & Giovannini, Massimo & Hohberger, Stefan & Pataracchia, Beatrice & Pericoli, Filippo Maria & Raciborski, Rafal, 2019. "Comparing post-crisis dynamics across Euro Area countries with the Global Multi-country model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 242-273.
    8. Matthias Burgert & Philipp Pfeiffer & Werner Roeger, 2021. "Fiscal policy in a monetary union with downward nominal wage rigidity," Working Papers 2021-16, Swiss National Bank.
    9. Bańkowski, Krzysztof & Ferdinandusse, Marien & Hauptmeier, Sebastian & Jacquinot, Pascal & Valenta, Vilém, 2021. "The macroeconomic impact of the Next Generation EU instrument on the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 255, European Central Bank.
    10. Cristina Badarau & Florence Huart & Ibrahima Sangaré, 2021. "Households saving and financial spillovers in the Euro area," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(4), pages 660-687, October.
    11. Nicoletta Batini & Alessandro Cantelmo & Giovanni Melina & Stefania Villa, 2021. "How loose, how tight? A measure of monetary and fiscal stance for the euro area," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 73(4), pages 1536-1556.
    12. Daniel Rees, 2020. "What Comes Next?," BIS Working Papers 898, Bank for International Settlements.
    13. Cardani, Roberta & Croitorov, Olga & Giovannini, Massimo & Pfeiffer, Philipp & Ratto, Marco & Vogel, Lukas, 2021. "The Euro Area's pandemic recession: A DSGE interpretation," Working Papers 2021-10, Joint Research Centre, European Commission.
    14. Aizhan Bolatbayeva, 2021. "A multicountry macroeconometric model for the Eurasian Economic Union," Russian Journal of Economics, ARPHA Platform, vol. 7(4), pages 354-370, December.
    15. Roberta Cardani & Olga Croitorov & Massimo Giovannini & Philipp Pfeiffer & Marco Ratto & Lukas Vogel, 2021. "The Euro Area's Pandemic Recession: A DSGE-Based Interpretation," European Economy - Discussion Papers 2015 - 153, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    16. Philipp Pfeiffer & Janos Varga & Jan in 't Veld, 2021. "Quantifying Spillovers of Next Generation EU Investment," European Economy - Discussion Papers 2015 - 144, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    17. Darracq Pariès, Matthieu & Notarpietro, Alessandro & Kilponen, Juha & Papadopoulou, Niki & Zimic, Srečko & Aldama, Pierre & Langenus, Geert & Alvarez, Luis Julian & Lemoine, Matthieu & Angelini, Elena, 2021. "Review of macroeconomic modelling in the Eurosystem: current practices and scope for improvement," Occasional Paper Series 267, European Central Bank.
    18. Horst, Maximilian & Neyer, Ulrike & Stempel, Daniel, 2020. "Asymmetric macroeconomic effects of QE-induced increases in excess reserves in a monetary union," DICE Discussion Papers 346, Heinrich Heine University Düsseldorf, Düsseldorf Institute for Competition Economics (DICE).
    19. Audzei, Volha & Brůha, Jan, 2022. "A model of the Euro area, China, and the United States: Trade links and trade wars," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    20. Varthalitis, Petros, 2019. "FIR-GEM: A SOE-DSGE Model for fiscal policy analysis in Ireland," Papers WP620, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    21. Damioli, Giacomo & Gregori, Wildmer Daniel, 2021. "Diplomatic relations and cross-border investments in the European Union," Working Papers 2021-02, Joint Research Centre, European Commission.
    22. Cardani, Roberta & Hohberger, Stefan & Pfeiffer, Philipp & Vogel, Lukas, 2022. "Domestic versus foreign drivers of trade (im)balances: How robust is evidence from estimated DSGE models?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    23. Charalampidis, Nikolaos, 2020. "On unemployment cycles in the Euro Area, 1999–2018," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 121(C).
    24. Giovannini, Massimo & Pfeiffer, Philipp & Ratto, Marco, 2021. "Efficient and robust inference of models with occasionally binding constraints," Working Papers 2021-03, Joint Research Centre, European Commission.
    25. Calo, Silvia & Gregori, Wildmer Daniel & Petracco Giudici, Marco & Rancan, Michela, 2021. "Has the Comprehensive Assessment made the European financial system more resilient?," Working Papers 2021-08, Joint Research Centre, European Commission.

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    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F45 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Macroeconomic Issues of Monetary Unions

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