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The Global Multi-Country Model (GM): An Estimated DSGE Model for Euro Area Countries

Author

Listed:
  • Alice Albonico
  • Ludovic Calés
  • Roberta Cardani
  • Olga Croitorov
  • Fabio Di Dio
  • Filippo Ferroni
  • Massimo Giovannini
  • Stefan Hohberger
  • Beatrice Pataracchia
  • Filippo Pericoli
  • Philipp Pfeiffer
  • Rafal Raciborski
  • Marco Ratto
  • Werner Roeger
  • Lukas Vogel

Abstract

This paper introduces the Global Multi-country (GM) model, an estimated multi-country Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model of the world economy. We present the model in 3-region configurations for Euro area (EA) countries that include an individual EA Member State, the rest of the EA (REA), and the rest of the world (RoW). We provide and compare estimates of this model structure for the four largest EA countries (Germany, France, Italy, and Spain). The novelty of the paper is the estimation of ex-ante identical country models on the basis of a unified information set, which allows for clean crosscountry comparison of parameter estimates and drivers of economic dynamics. The paper also provides an overview of applications of the GM model such as the structural interpretation of business cycle dynamics, the contribution to the European Commission’s economic forecast, the scenario analysis and policy counterfactuals.

Suggested Citation

  • Alice Albonico & Ludovic Calés & Roberta Cardani & Olga Croitorov & Fabio Di Dio & Filippo Ferroni & Massimo Giovannini & Stefan Hohberger & Beatrice Pataracchia & Filippo Pericoli & Philipp Pfeiffer , 2019. "The Global Multi-Country Model (GM): An Estimated DSGE Model for Euro Area Countries," European Economy - Discussion Papers 102, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    • Handle: RePEc:euf:dispap:102
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F45 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Macroeconomic Issues of Monetary Unions

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