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The Global Multi-Country Model (GM): An Estimated DSGE Model for Euro Area Countries

Author

Listed:
  • Alice Albonico
  • Ludovic Calés
  • Roberta Cardani
  • Olga Croitorov
  • Fabio Di Dio
  • Filippo Ferroni
  • Massimo Giovannini
  • Stefan Hohberger
  • Beatrice Pataracchia
  • Filippo Pericoli
  • Philipp Pfeiffer
  • Rafal Raciborski
  • Marco Ratto
  • Werner Roeger
  • Lukas Vogel

Abstract

This paper introduces the Global Multi-country (GM) model, an estimated multi-country Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model of the world economy. We present the model in 3-region configurations for Euro area (EA) countries that include an individual EA Member State, the rest of the EA (REA), and the rest of the world (RoW). We provide and compare estimates of this model structure for the four largest EA countries (Germany, France, Italy, and Spain). The novelty of the paper is the estimation of ex-ante identical country models on the basis of a unified information set, which allows for clean crosscountry comparison of parameter estimates and drivers of economic dynamics. The paper also provides an overview of applications of the GM model such as the structural interpretation of business cycle dynamics, the contribution to the European Commission’s economic forecast, the scenario analysis and policy counterfactuals.

Suggested Citation

  • Alice Albonico & Ludovic Calés & Roberta Cardani & Olga Croitorov & Fabio Di Dio & Filippo Ferroni & Massimo Giovannini & Stefan Hohberger & Beatrice Pataracchia & Filippo Pericoli & Philipp Pfeiffer , 2019. "The Global Multi-Country Model (GM): An Estimated DSGE Model for Euro Area Countries," European Economy - Discussion Papers 2015 - 102, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
  • Handle: RePEc:euf:dispap:102
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Stefan Hohberger & Marco Ratto & Lukas Vogel, 2019. "The euro exchange rate and Germany's trade surplus," CESifo Working Paper Series 7543, CESifo Group Munich.
    2. Giovannini, Massimo & Hohberger, Stefan & Ratto, Marco & Vogel, Lukas, 2018. "Adjustment dynamics and business cycle heterogeneity in the EMU: Evidence from estimated DSGE models," Working Papers 2018-08, Joint Research Centre, European Commission (Ispra site).
    3. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Tiziano Ropele, 2018. "Inflation Expectations and Firm Decisions: New Causal Evidence," NBER Working Papers 25412, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Varthalitis, Petros, 2019. "FIR-GEM: A SOE-DSGE Model for fiscal policy analysis in Ireland," Papers WP620, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    5. Giovannini, Massimo & Hohberger, Stefan & Ratto, Marco & Vogel, Lukas, 2019. "Adjustment dynamics and business cycle heterogeneity in the EMU," Annual Conference 2019 (Leipzig): 30 Years after the Fall of the Berlin Wall - Democracy and Market Economy 203548, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F45 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Macroeconomic Issues of Monetary Unions

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