IDEAS home Printed from
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

The ECB's New Multi-Country Model for the euro area: NMCM - simulated with rational expectations

  • Dieppe, Alistair
  • González Pandiella, Alberto
  • Willman, Alpo

The model presented here is a New estimated medium-scale Multi-Country Model (NMCM) which covers the five largest euro area countries and is used for forecasting and scenarios analysis at the European Central Bank. The model has a tight theoretical structure which allows for non-unitary elasticity of substitution, non-constant augmenting technical progress and heterogeneous sectors with differentiated price and income elastiticites of demand across sectors. Furthermore, it has the explicit inclusion of expectations on the basis of three optimising private sector decision making units: i.e. firms, trade unions and households, where output is in the short run demand-determined and monopolistically competing firms set prices and factor demands. Labour is indivisible and monopoly-unions set wages and households make consumption/saving decisions. We assume agents optimise under limited information where each agent knows only the parameters related to his/her optimization problem. Therefore we estimate with GMM, which implicitly assumes limited information boundedly rational expectations. In this paper we provide some simulation results under the assumption of model-consistent rational expectations, we show that there is some heterogeneity across countries and that the reactions of the economies to shocks depends strongly on whether the shocks are pre-announced, announced and credible or unannounced and uncredible. JEL Classification: C51, C6, E5

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL:
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by European Central Bank in its series Working Paper Series with number 1315.

in new window

Date of creation: Apr 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20111315
Contact details of provider: Postal:
60640 Frankfurt am Main, Germany

Phone: +49 69 1344 0
Fax: +49 69 1344 6000
Web page:

More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2003. "An Estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model of the Euro Area," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(5), pages 1123-1175, 09.
  2. Richard Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1998. "Monetary Policy Rules and Macroeconomic Stability: Evidence and Some Theory," NBER Working Papers 6442, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Gregory De Walque & Olivier Pierrard & Henri Sneessens & Raf Wouters, 2009. "Sequential Bargaining in a Neo-Keynesian Model with Frictional Unemployment and Staggered Wage Negotiations," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 95-96, pages 223-250.
  4. M. Druant & S. Fabiani & Gabor Kezdi & Ana Lamo & Fernando Martins & R. Sabbatini, 2009. "How are Firms’ Wages and Prices Linked: Survey Evidence in Europe," Working Papers w200918, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  5. Deaton, Angus S & Muellbauer, John, 1980. "An Almost Ideal Demand System," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(3), pages 312-26, June.
  6. Ignazio Angeloni & Michael Ehrmann, 2003. "Monetary transmission in the euro area: early evidence," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 18(37), pages 469-501, October.
  7. Cristiano Cantore & Miguel A. Leon-Ledesma & Peter McAdam & Alpo Willman, 2013. "Shocking Stuff: Technology, Hours, and Factor Substitution," School of Economics Discussion Papers 0913, School of Economics, University of Surrey.
  8. Daron Acemoglu, 2002. "Directed Technical Change," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 69(4), pages 781-809.
  9. Luis J. Álvarez & Emmanuel Dhyne & Marco M. Hoeberichts & Claudia Kwapil & Hervé le Bihan & Patrick Lünnemann & Fernando Martins & Roberto Sabbatini & Harald Stahl & Philip Vermeulen & Jouko Vilmunen, 2005. "Sticky prices in the euro area: a summary of new micro evidence," Working Papers 0542, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
  10. Philip Vermeulen & Daniel Dias & Maarten Dossche & Erwan Gautier & I. Hernando & R. Sabbatini & H. Stahl, 2007. "Price setting in the euro area: Some stylised facts from Individual Producer Price Data," Working Papers w200705, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  11. Fabiani, S. & Druant, M. & Hernando, I. & Kwapil, C. & Landau, B. & Loupias, C. & Martins, F. & Mathä, T. & Sabbatini, R. & Stahl, H. & Stockman, A., 2005. "The Pricing Behaviour of Firms in the Euro Area: New Survey Evidence," Working papers 135, Banque de France.
  12. van Els, Peter J. A. & Locarno, Alberto & Morgan, Julian & Villetelle, Jean-Pierre, 2001. "Monetary policy transmission in the euro area: What do aggregate and national structural models tell us?," Working Paper Series 0094, European Central Bank.
  13. Willman, Alpo, 2007. "Sequential optimization, front-loaded information, and U.S. consumption," Working Paper Series 0765, European Central Bank.
  14. Robert M. Solow, 2000. "Toward a Macroeconomics of the Medium Run," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 14(1), pages 151-158, Winter.
  15. Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 2000. "Inflation Dynamics: A Structural Econometric Analysis," NBER Working Papers 7551, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. Cogley, Timothy, 2001. "Estimating and testing rational expectations models when the trend specification is uncertain," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(10), pages 1485-1525, October.
  17. S. Boragan Aruoba & Jesus Fernandez-Villaverde & Juan F. Rubio-Ramirez, 2003. "Comparing solution methods for dynamic equilibrium economies," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2003-27, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  18. Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Serena Ng, 2009. "Estimation of DSGE Models When the Data are Persistent," NBER Working Papers 15187, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  19. Peersman, Gert & Smets, Frank, 2001. "The monetary transmission mechanism in the euro area: more evidence from VAR analysis," Working Paper Series 0091, European Central Bank.
  20. Olivier J. Blanchard, 1984. "Debt, Deficits and Finite Horizons," NBER Working Papers 1389, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  21. Fabiani, Silvia & Druant, Martine & Hernando, Ignacio & Kwapil, Claudia & Landau, Bettina & Loupias, Claire & Martins, Fernando & Matha, Thomas & Sabbatini, Roberto & Stahl, Harald & Stokman, Ad, 2006. "What Firms' Surveys Tell Us about Price-Setting Behavior in the Euro Area," MPRA Paper 808, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  22. Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2003. "Closing small open economy models," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 163-185, October.
  23. Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark & López-Salido, J David, 2001. "European Inflation Dynamics," CEPR Discussion Papers 2684, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  24. Manoj Atolia & Santanu Chatterjee & Stephen J. Turnovsky, 2008. "How Misleading is Linearization? Evaluating the Dynamics of the Neoclassical Growth Model," Working Papers wp2008_11_01, Department of Economics, Florida State University, revised Sep 2008.
  25. Kollmann, Robert & Maliar, Serguei & Malin, Benjamin A. & Pichler, Paul, 2011. "Comparison of solutions to the multi-country Real Business Cycle model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 186-202, February.
  26. Filippo Altissimo & Michael Ehrmann & Frank Smets, 2006. "Inflation persistence and price-setting behaviour in the euro area – a summary of the IPN evidence," Occasional Paper Series 46, European Central Bank.
  27. Dieppe, Alistair & González Pandiella, Alberto & Hall, Stephen & Willman, Alpo, 2011. "The ECB's New Multi-Country Model for the euro area: NMCM - with boundedly rational learning expectations," Working Paper Series 1316, European Central Bank.
  28. Christoffel, Kai & Coenen, Günter & Warne, Anders, 2008. "The New Area-Wide Model of the euro area: a micro-founded open-economy model for forecasting and policy analysis," Working Paper Series 0944, European Central Bank.
  29. Angeloni, Ignazio & Ehrmann, Michael, 2003. "Monetary policy transmission in the euro area: any changes after EMU?," Working Paper Series 0240, European Central Bank.
  30. Taylor, John B., 1999. "Staggered price and wage setting in macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 15, pages 1009-1050 Elsevier.
  31. Miguel A. León-Ledesma & Peter McAdam & Alpo Willman, 2010. "Identifying the Elasticity of Substitution with Biased Technical Change," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(4), pages 1330-57, September.
  32. Sergio Rebelo & Nir Jaimovich & Martin Eichenbaum, 2010. "Reference Prices and Nominal Rigidities," 2010 Meeting Papers 1049, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  33. Oliver J. Blanchard, 1997. "The Medium Run," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 28(2), pages 89-158.
  34. Rainer Klump & Peter McAdam & Alpo Willman, 2007. "The long-term sucCESs of the neoclassical growth model," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 23(1), pages 94-114, Spring.
  35. Daron Acemoglu, 2000. "Labor- and Capital- Augmenting Technical Change," NBER Working Papers 7544, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  36. McAdam, Peter & Willman, Alpo, 2013. "Medium Run Redux," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(04), pages 695-727, June.
  37. McAdam, Peter & Willman, Alpo, 2007. "State-dependency and firm-level optimization: a contribution to Calvo price staggering," Working Paper Series 0806, European Central Bank.
  38. Hansen, Lars Peter, 1982. "Large Sample Properties of Generalized Method of Moments Estimators," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(4), pages 1029-54, July.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20111315. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Official Publications)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.