IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fsu/wpaper/wp2008_11_01.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

How Misleading is Linearization? Evaluating the Dynamics of the Neoclassical Growth Model

Author

Listed:
  • Manoj Atolia

    () (Department of Economics, Florida State University)

  • Santanu Chatterjee

    () (Terry College of Business, University of Georgia)

  • Stephen J. Turnovsky

    () (Department of Economics, University of Washington)

Abstract

The standard procedure for analyzing transitional dynamics in non-linear macro models has been to employ linear approximations. This raises the central question of this paper: How reliable is this procedure in evaluating the dynamic adjustments to policy changes or structural shocks? This question is significant since one of the basic objectives of contemporary micro-based macroeconomic models is the analysis of intertemporal welfare. We analyze this issue in the context of a neoclassical Ramsey growth model, with two alternative specifications of productive government spending, by employing both linearization and non-linear solution techniques. We find that if government expenditure is introduced as a flow and the dynamic adjustment is fast, linearization may be a reasonably good approximation of the true dynamics even for fairly large policy shocks. In contrast, if government expenditure assumes the form of a stock, leading to more sluggish adjustment, linearization is more problematic. The linearization procedure may yield misleading predictions, both qualitatively and quantitatively. These occur at the beginning of the transition and therefore weigh heavily in intertemporal welfare calculations. These patterns are verified for temporary shocks as well.

Suggested Citation

  • Manoj Atolia & Santanu Chatterjee & Stephen J. Turnovsky, 2008. "How Misleading is Linearization? Evaluating the Dynamics of the Neoclassical Growth Model," Working Papers wp2008_11_01, Department of Economics, Florida State University, revised Sep 2008.
  • Handle: RePEc:fsu:wpaper:wp2008_11_01
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: ftp://econpapers.fsu.edu/RePEc/fsu/wpaper/wp2008_11_01.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2008-01
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kim, Jinill & Kim, Sunghyun Henry, 2003. "Spurious welfare reversals in international business cycle models," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 471-500, August.
    2. Chris Papageorgiou & Fidel Perez-Sebastian, 2007. "Is the Asymptotic Speed of Convergence a Good Proxy for the Transitional Growth Path?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(1), pages 1-24, February.
    3. Barro, Robert J & Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1992. "Convergence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(2), pages 223-251, April.
      • Barro, R.J. & Sala-I-Martin, X., 1991. "Convergence," Papers 645, Yale - Economic Growth Center.
      • Barro, Robert J. & Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1992. "Convergence," Scholarly Articles 3451299, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    4. Gramlich, Edward M, 1994. "Infrastructure Investment: A Review Essay," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 32(3), pages 1176-1196, September.
    5. Fisher, Walter H & Turnovsky, Stephen J, 1998. "Public Investment, Congestion, and Private Capital Accumulation," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(447), pages 399-413, March.
    6. Turnovsky, Stephen J, 2004. "The Transitional Dynamics of Fiscal Policy: Long-Run Capital Accumulation and Growth," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(5), pages 883-910, October.
    7. Barro, Robert J, 1990. "Government Spending in a Simple Model of Endogenous Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(5), pages 103-126, October.
    8. N. Gregory Mankiw & David Romer & David N. Weil, 1992. "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 107(2), pages 407-437.
    9. Manoj Atolia & Edward F. Buffie, 2004. "Reverse Shooting Made Easy: Solving for the Global Nonlinear Saddle Path," Working Papers wp2009_01_01, Department of Economics, Florida State University, revised Jan 2009.
    10. Dani Rodrik, 1996. "Understanding Economic Policy Reform," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(1), pages 9-41, March.
    11. Ortigueira, Salvador & Santos, Manuel S, 1997. "On the Speed of Convergence in Endogenous Growth Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 87(3), pages 383-399, June.
    12. Rainer Klump & Peter McAdam & Alpo Willman, 2007. "Factor Substitution and Factor-Augmenting Technical Progress in the United States: A Normalized Supply-Side System Approach," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 89(1), pages 183-192, February.
    13. Wouter J. Den Haan & Albert Marcet, 1994. "Accuracy in Simulations," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 61(1), pages 3-17.
    14. Jonathan R. W. Temple, 1998. "Robustness tests of the augmented Solow model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 13(4), pages 361-375.
    15. Aruoba, S. Boragan & Fernandez-Villaverde, Jesus & Rubio-Ramirez, Juan F., 2006. "Comparing solution methods for dynamic equilibrium economies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(12), pages 2477-2508, December.
    16. Baxter, Marianne & King, Robert G, 1993. "Fiscal Policy in General Equilibrium," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(3), pages 315-334, June.
    17. Berndt, Ernst R, 1976. "Reconciling Alternative Estimates of the Elasticity of Substitution," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 58(1), pages 59-68, February.
    18. Chatterjee, Santanu, 2005. "Capital utilization, economic growth and convergence," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(12), pages 2093-2124, December.
    19. Brunner, Martin & Strulik, Holger, 2002. "Solution of perfect foresight saddlepoint problems: a simple method and applications," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(5), pages 737-753, May.
    20. Stephanie Becker & Lars Grüne & Willi Semmler, 2007. "Comparing accuracy of second-order approximation and dynamic programming," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 30(1), pages 65-91, August.
    21. Manoj Atolia & Edward Buffie, 2009. "Smart Forward Shooting," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 33(1), pages 1-30, February.
    22. Turnovsky, Stephen J., 2002. "Intertemporal and intratemporal substitution, and the speed of convergence in the neoclassical growth model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 26(9-10), pages 1765-1785, August.
    23. Manuel S. Santos, 2000. "Accuracy of Numerical Solutions using the Euler Equation Residuals," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(6), pages 1377-1402, November.
    24. Judd, Kenneth L., 1992. "Projection methods for solving aggregate growth models," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 58(2), pages 410-452, December.
    25. Nazrul Islam, 1995. "Growth Empirics: A Panel Data Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 110(4), pages 1127-1170.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Dieppe, Alistair & González Pandiella, Alberto & Willman, Alpo, 2012. "The ECB's New Multi-Country Model for the euro area: NMCM — Simulated with rational expectations," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2597-2614.
    2. Kirkby, Robert, 2017. "Transition paths for Bewley-Huggett-Aiyagari models: Comparison of some solution algorithms," Working Paper Series 5642, Victoria University of Wellington, School of Economics and Finance.
    3. Mahbub Morshed, A.K.M. & Turnovsky, Stephen J., 2011. "Real exchange rate dynamics: The role of elastic labor supply," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(7), pages 1303-1322.
    4. Groneck, Max, 2010. "A golden rule of public finance or a fixed deficit regime?: Growth and welfare effects of budget rules," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 523-534, March.
    5. Atolia, Manoj & Chatterjee, Santanu & Turnovsky, Stephen J., 2012. "Growth and inequality: Dependence on the time path of productivity increases (and other structural changes)," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 331-348.
    6. Turnovsky, Stephen J., 2011. "On the role of small models in macrodynamics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(9), pages 1605-1613, September.
    7. Jonathan Temple & Huikang Ying & Patrick Carter, 2014. "Transfers and Transformations: Remittances, Foreign Aid, and Growth," Bristol Economics Discussion Papers 14/649, Department of Economics, University of Bristol, UK, revised 02 Dec 2014.
    8. Agénor, Pierre-Richard & Canuto, Otaviano & da Silva, Luiz Pereira, 2014. "On gender and growth: The role of intergenerational health externalities and women's occupational constraints," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 132-147.
    9. Junying Zhao & William Scarth & Jeremiah Hurley, 2015. "Investing in Health: A Macroeconomic Exploration of Short-Run and Long-Run Trade-Offs," Department of Economics Working Papers 2015-15, McMaster University.
    10. Mário Amorim Lopes & Fernando A. C. C. Fontes & Dalila A. C. C. Fontes, 2013. "Optimal Control of Infinite-Horizon Growth Models — A direct approach," FEP Working Papers 506, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    11. Giulia FELICE, 2009. "Size and composition of public investment, structural change and growth," Departmental Working Papers 2009-28, Department of Economics, Management and Quantitative Methods at Università degli Studi di Milano, revised 27 Dec 2011.
    12. Manoj Atolia, 2010. "Public Investment, Tax Evasion, And The Welfare Effects Of A Tariff Reform," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 28(2), pages 219-239, April.
    13. OA Carboni & G. Medda, 2010. "A Neoclassical Growth Model with Public Spending," Working Paper CRENoS 201033, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
    14. Groneck, Max, 2008. "A Golden Rule of Public Finance or a Fixed Deficit Regime? Growth and Welfare Effects of Budget Rules," FiFo Discussion Papers - Finanzwissenschaftliche Diskussionsbeiträge 08-7, University of Cologne, FiFo Institute for Public Economics.
    15. Pedro Mazeda Gil & Oscar Afonso & Paulo B. Vasconcelos, 2015. "Skill-Structure Shocks, the Share of the High-Tech Sector and Economic Growth Dynamics," FEP Working Papers 554, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    16. Klarl, Torben, 2016. "Pollution externalities, endogenous health and the speed of convergence in an endogenous growth model," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 98-113.
    17. Pedro Mazeda Gil & Oscar Afonso & Paulo B. Vasconcelos, 2013. "Industry Dynamics and Aggregate Stability over Transition," FEP Working Papers 484, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Public expenditure; growth; nonlinearities; welfare analysis;

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fsu:wpaper:wp2008_11_01. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dmitry Ryvkin). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/defsuus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.