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Modelling internal devaluation experiences in Europe: Rational or learning agents?

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  • Angelini, E.
  • Dieppe, A.
  • Pierluigi, B.

Abstract

In this paper we study the experiences of wage and price mark-up adjustments (internal devaluation) in Germany (in the decade up to 2009) and Spain (in the 5-year after 2009) within the framework of the ECB’s New Multi-Country Model (NMCM). The NMCM works both in a rational expectation environment and in a learning environment. We show that a learning environment (where agents take time to adapt to the new situation) appears well suited to capture the gradual wage and price adjustment of Germany and Spain. By contrast a rational expectation model appears more appropriate to describe the abrupt wage adjustment which took place in the Baltic States in 2008–09. The two environments appear to reflect the institutional differences between Germany and Spain on the one-hand and the Baltic States on the other hand. Moreover, in the learning environment, GDP and employment gains are delayed with respect to a rational expectation setting, but they are more long-lasting.

Suggested Citation

  • Angelini, E. & Dieppe, A. & Pierluigi, B., 2015. "Modelling internal devaluation experiences in Europe: Rational or learning agents?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 81-92.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jmacro:v:43:y:2015:i:c:p:81-92
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2014.08.008
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    Cited by:

    1. Elena Angelini & Michele Ca’ Zorzi & Katrin Forster van Aerssen, 2016. "External and Macroeconomic Adjustment in the Larger Euro-Area Countries," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(3), pages 269-291, December.
    2. Rajmund Mirdala & Júlia Ďurčová, 2016. "Priepustnosť menových kurzov nových členských krajín Európskej unie [Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Domestic Prices in New EU Member Countries]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2016(4), pages 377-404.
    3. Theodore Mariolis & Nikolaos Rodousakis & Apostolis Katsinos, 2019. "Wage versus currency devaluation, price pass-through and income distribution: a comparative input–output analysis of the Greek and Italian economies," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 8(1), pages 1-23, December.
    4. Rajmund Mirdala, 2015. "Sources of Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations in New EU Member Countries," FIW Working Paper series 160, FIW.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Internal devaluation; Competitiveness; Price and wage mark-ups; Relative price adjustment in a monetary union; Rational and learning expectations;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • J30 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - General

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