IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jmacro/v43y2015icp81-92.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Modelling internal devaluation experiences in Europe: Rational or learning agents?

Author

Listed:
  • Angelini, E.
  • Dieppe, A.
  • Pierluigi, B.

Abstract

In this paper we study the experiences of wage and price mark-up adjustments (internal devaluation) in Germany (in the decade up to 2009) and Spain (in the 5-year after 2009) within the framework of the ECB’s New Multi-Country Model (NMCM). The NMCM works both in a rational expectation environment and in a learning environment. We show that a learning environment (where agents take time to adapt to the new situation) appears well suited to capture the gradual wage and price adjustment of Germany and Spain. By contrast a rational expectation model appears more appropriate to describe the abrupt wage adjustment which took place in the Baltic States in 2008–09. The two environments appear to reflect the institutional differences between Germany and Spain on the one-hand and the Baltic States on the other hand. Moreover, in the learning environment, GDP and employment gains are delayed with respect to a rational expectation setting, but they are more long-lasting.

Suggested Citation

  • Angelini, E. & Dieppe, A. & Pierluigi, B., 2015. "Modelling internal devaluation experiences in Europe: Rational or learning agents?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 81-92.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jmacro:v:43:y:2015:i:c:p:81-92
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2014.08.008
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0164070414001074
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jmacro.2014.08.008?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Aránzazu Crespo Rodríguez & Gabriel Pérez-Quirós & Rubén Segura Cayuela, 2012. "Competitiveness indicators: the importance of an efficient allocation of resources," Economic Bulletin, Banco de España, issue JAN, pages 103-111, January.
    2. Warne, Anders & Coenen, Günter & Christoffel, Kai, 2008. "The new area-wide model of the euro area: a micro-founded open-economy model for forecasting and policy analysis," Working Paper Series 944, European Central Bank.
    3. Jesus Felipe & Utsav Kumar, 2014. "Unit labor costs in the eurozone: the competitiveness debate again," Review of Keynesian Economics, Edward Elgar Publishing, vol. 2(4), pages 490-507, October.
    4. Jan Babecký & Philip Du Caju & Theodora Kosma & Martina Lawless & Julián Messina & Tairi Rõõm, 2009. "The margins of labour cost adjustment: survey evidence from european firms," Working Papers 108, Bank of Greece.
    5. Holger Zemanek, 2010. "Competitiveness Within The Euro Area: The Problem That Still Needs To Be Solved," Economic Affairs, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(3), pages 42-47, October.
    6. Sandra Gomes & Pascal Jacquinot & Matthias Mohr & Massimiliano Pisani, 2013. "Structural Reforms and Macroeconomic Performance in the Euro Area Countries: A Model-Based Assessment," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(1), pages 23-44, February.
    7. Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "Inflation Dynamics: A Structural Economic Analysis," CEPR Discussion Papers 2246, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Ruscher, Eric & Wolff, Guntram B., 2009. "External rebalancing is not just an exporters' story: real exchange rates, the non-tradable sector and the euro," MPRA Paper 19151, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Filippo Altissimo & Michael Ehrmann & Frank Smets, 2006. "Inflation persistence and price-setting behaviour in the euro area : a summary of the Inflation Persistence Network evidence," Working Paper Research 95, National Bank of Belgium.
    10. Ehrmann, Michael & Smets, Frank & Altissimo, Filippo, 2006. "Inflation persistence and price-setting behaviour in the euro area: a summary of the IPN evidence," Occasional Paper Series 46, European Central Bank.
    11. Mr. Joong S Kang & Mr. Jay C Shambaugh, 2013. "The Evolution of Current Account Deficits in the Euro Area Periphery and the Baltics: Many Paths to the Same Endpoint," IMF Working Papers 2013/169, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Dieppe, Alistair & González Pandiella, Alberto & Willman, Alpo, 2012. "The ECB's New Multi-Country Model for the euro area: NMCM — Simulated with rational expectations," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2597-2614.
    13. Luis J. Álvarez & Emmanuel Dhyne & Marco Hoeberichts & Claudia Kwapil & Hervé Le Bihan & Patrick Lünnemann & Fernando Martins & Roberto Sabbatini & Harald Stahl & Philip Vermeulen & Jouko Vilmunen, 2006. "Sticky Prices in the Euro Area: A Summary of New Micro-Evidence," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 4(2-3), pages 575-584, 04-05.
    14. Ratto, Marco & Roeger, Werner & Veld, Jan in 't, 2009. "QUEST III: An estimated open-economy DSGE model of the euro area with fiscal and monetary policy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 222-233, January.
    15. Decressin, Jorg & Fatas, Antonio, 1995. "Regional labor market dynamics in Europe," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 1627-1655, December.
    16. Gomes, S. & Jacquinot, P. & Pisani, M., 2012. "The EAGLE. A model for policy analysis of macroeconomic interdependence in the euro area," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1686-1714.
    17. Olivier Blanchard, 2007. "Current Account Deficits in Rich Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 54(2), pages 191-219, June.
    18. Bulir, Ales & Hurnik, Jaromir, 2006. "The Maastricht inflation criterion: How unpleasant is purgatory?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 385-404, December.
    19. Ms. Florence Jaumotte & Piyaporn Sodsriwiboon, 2010. "Current Account Imbalances in the Southern Euro Area," IMF Working Papers 2010/139, International Monetary Fund.
    20. Martin Eichenbaum & Nir Jaimovich & Sergio Rebelo, 2008. "Reference Prices and Nominal Rigidities," NBER Working Papers 13829, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Filippo Altissimo & Michael Ehrmann & Frank Smets, 2006. "Inflation persistence and price-setting behaviour in the euro area – a summary of the IPN evidence," Occasional Paper Series 46, European Central Bank.
    22. Masson,Paul R. & Taylor,Mark P. (ed.), 1993. "Policy Issues in the Operation of Currency Unions," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521434553.
    23. Osbat, Chiara & Jochem, Alex & Özyurt, Selin & Tello, Patry & Bragoudakis, Zacharias & Micallef, Brian & Sideris, Dimitris & Papadopoulou, Niki & Ajevskis, Viktors & Krekó, Judit & Gaulier, Guillaume , 2012. "Competitiveness and external imbalances within the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 139, European Central Bank.
    24. di Mauro, Filippo & Forster, Katrin & Lima, Ana, 2010. "The global downturn and its impact on euro area exports and competitiveness," Occasional Paper Series 119, European Central Bank.
    25. di Mauro, Filippo & Forster, Katrin & Lima, Ana, 2010. "The global downturn and its impact on euro area exports and competitiveness," Occasional Paper Series 119, European Central Bank.
    26. Alistair Dieppe & Alberto González Pandiella & Stephen Hall & Alpo Willman, 2011. "The ECB's New Multi-Country Model for the Euro area: NMCM - with Boundedly Rational Learning Expectations," Discussion Papers in Economics 11/27, Division of Economics, School of Business, University of Leicester.
    27. Oliver Landmann, 2012. "Rotating Slumps in a Monetary Union," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 23(2), pages 303-317, April.
    28. A team of the Working Group on Econometric Modelling of the European System of Central Banks, 2012. "Competitiveness and external imbalances within the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 139, European Central Bank.
    29. Olivier Blanchard, 2007. "Current Account Deficits in Rich Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 54(2), pages 191-219, June.
    30. Eichengreen, Barry, 1993. "European Monetary Unification," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 31(3), pages 1321-1357, September.
    31. Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "Inflation dynamics: A structural econometric analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 195-222, October.
    32. Jean Imbs & Isabelle Mejean, 2010. "Trade Elasticities: A Final Report for the European Commission," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 432, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    33. Olivier Blanchard, 2007. "Adjustment within the euro. The difficult case of Portugal," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 6(1), pages 1-21, April.
    34. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1997. "Is EMU more justifiable ex post than ex ante?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-5), pages 753-760, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Elena Angelini & Michele Ca’ Zorzi & Katrin Forster van Aerssen, 2016. "External and Macroeconomic Adjustment in the Larger Euro-Area Countries," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(3), pages 269-291, December.
    2. Ivan Faiella & Alessandro Mistretta, 2022. "The Net Zero Challenge for Firms’ Competitiveness," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 83(1), pages 85-113, September.
    3. Rajmund Mirdala & Júlia Ďurčová, 2016. "Priepustnosť menových kurzov nových členských krajín Európskej unie [Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Domestic Prices in New EU Member Countries]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2016(4), pages 377-404.
    4. Theodore Mariolis & Nikolaos Rodousakis & Apostolis Katsinos, 2019. "Wage versus currency devaluation, price pass-through and income distribution: a comparative input–output analysis of the Greek and Italian economies," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 8(1), pages 1-23, December.
    5. Rajmund Mirdala, 2015. "Sources of Real Exchange Rate Fluctuations in New EU Member Countries," FIW Working Paper series 160, FIW.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Angelini, Elena & Dieppe, Alistair & Pierluigi, Beatrice, 2013. "Learning about wage and price mark-ups in euro area countries," Working Paper Series 1512, European Central Bank.
    2. Dieppe, Alistair & González Pandiella, Alberto & Willman, Alpo, 2012. "The ECB's New Multi-Country Model for the euro area: NMCM — Simulated with rational expectations," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2597-2614.
    3. Alvarez González, Luis Julián, 2008. "What Do Micro Price Data Tell Us on the Validity of the New Keynesian Phillips Curve?," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 2, pages 1-36.
    4. Carlos Usabiaga & Diego Romero-Ávila, 2012. "New Disaggregate Evidence on Spanish Inflation Persistence," EcoMod2012 3800, EcoMod.
    5. Pierluigi, Beatrice & Sondermann, David, 2018. "Macroeconomic imbalances in the euro area: where do we stand?," Occasional Paper Series 211, European Central Bank.
    6. Thorvardur Tjörvi Ólafsson, 2006. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve: In Search of Improvements and Adaptation to the Open Economy," Economics wp31_tjorvi, Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland.
    7. Mr. Yasser Abdih & Ms. Li Lin & Anne-Charlotte Paret, 2018. "Understanding Euro Area Inflation Dynamics: Why So Low for So Long?," IMF Working Papers 2018/188, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Giuseppe Caivano & Nicola D. Coniglio, 2016. "Long-Run Drivers of Current Account Imbalances in the EU: the Role of Trade Openness," SERIES 03-2016, Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza - Università degli Studi di Bari "Aldo Moro", revised May 2016.
    9. Muhammad Nadim Hanif & Muhammad Jahanzeb Malik & Javed Iqbal, 2016. "Intrinsic Inflation Persistence in a Developing Country," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, vol. 12, pages 19-42.
    10. Bask, Mikael & Proaño, Christian R., 2016. "Optimal monetary policy under learning and structural uncertainty in a New Keynesian model with a cost channel and inflation inertia," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 112-126.
    11. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis Alberiko Gil‐Alana & Tommaso Trani, 2022. "On the persistence of UK inflation: A long‐range dependence approach," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 439-454, January.
    12. Gomes, S. & Jacquinot, P. & Pisani, M., 2016. "Fiscal devaluation in the euro area: A model-based analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PA), pages 58-70.
    13. Guenter W. Beck & Kirstin Hubrich & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2016. "On the Importance of Sectoral and Regional Shocks for Price‐Setting," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(7), pages 1234-1253, November.
    14. Juan manuel Julio & Héctor manuel Zárate, 2008. "The Price Setting Behavior in Colombia: evidence from PPI micro data," Revista ESPE - Ensayos Sobre Política Económica, Banco de la República, vol. 26(56), pages 12-44, June.
    15. Lein, Sarah M., 2010. "When do firms adjust prices? Evidence from micro panel data," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 57(6), pages 696-715, September.
    16. Daniel Gaskin & Juergen Attard & Karen Caruana, 2017. "Household finance and consumption survey in Malta: the results from the second Wave," CBM Working Papers WP/02/2017, Central Bank of Malta.
    17. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2007_024 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Bask, Mikael, 2007. "Optimal monetary policy in a hybrid New Keynesian model with a cost channel," Research Discussion Papers 24/2007, Bank of Finland.
    19. Brian Micallef & Reuben Ellul, 2020. "How Do Estimates of Inflation Persistence in Malta Compare with Other EU Countries?," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 12(7), pages 1-31, July.
    20. Fuhrer, Jeffrey C., 2010. "Inflation Persistence," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: Benjamin M. Friedman & Michael Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 9, pages 423-486, Elsevier.
    21. Bartosz Mackowiak & Frank Smets, 2008. "On implications of micro price data for macro models," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Internal devaluation; Competitiveness; Price and wage mark-ups; Relative price adjustment in a monetary union; Rational and learning expectations;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • J30 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jmacro:v:43:y:2015:i:c:p:81-92. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/622617 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.