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Fiscal devaluation in the euro area: a model-based analysis

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  • Jacquinot, Pascal
  • Pisani, Massimiliano
  • Gomes, Sandra

Abstract

We assess the effects on trade balance of a temporary fiscal devaluation enacted by Spain or Portugal by simulating EAGLE, a large-scale multi-country dynamic general equilibrium model of the euro area. Social contributions paid by firms are reduced by 1 percent of GDP for four years and are financed by increasing consumption tax. Our main results are the following. First, the Spanish trade balance improves by 0.5 percent of GDP, the (before-consumption tax) real exchange rate depreciates by 0.7 percent and the terms of trade deteriorate by 1 percent. Second, similar results are obtained in the case of Portugal. Third, the trade balance improves when the fiscal devaluation is enacted also in the rest of the euro area, albeit to a lower extent than in the case of unilateral (country-specific) implementation. Fourth, quantitative results crucially depend on the degree of substitutability between domestic and imported tradables. JEL Classification: F32, F47, H20

Suggested Citation

  • Jacquinot, Pascal & Pisani, Massimiliano & Gomes, Sandra, 2014. "Fiscal devaluation in the euro area: a model-based analysis," Working Paper Series 1725, European Central Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20141725
    Note: 725400
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Gadatsch, Niklas & Stähler, Nikolai & Weigert, Benjamin, 2016. "German labor market and fiscal reforms 1999–2008: Can they be blamed for intra-euro area imbalances?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 307-324.
    2. Lorenzo Burlon & Alessandro Notarpietro & Massimiliano Pisani, 2019. "Fiscal devaluation and labour market frictions in a monetary union," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1241, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    3. Bielecki, Marcin & Stähler, Nikolai, 2018. "Labor tax reductions in Europe: The role of property taxation," Discussion Papers 30/2018, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    4. Pascal Jacquinot & Matija Lozej & Massimiliano Pisani, 2018. "Labor Tax Reforms, Cross-Country Coordination, and the Monetary Policy Stance in the Euro Area: A Structural Model-Based Approach," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 14(3), pages 65-140, June.
    5. Lukas Vogel, 2017. "Stabilization and Rebalancing with Fiscal or Monetary Devaluation: a Model-Based Comparison," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo, vol. 63(2), pages 235-253.
    6. Batini, Nicoletta & Melina, Giovanni & Villa, Stefania, 2019. "Fiscal buffers, private debt, and recession: The good, the bad and the ugly," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    7. Stähler, Nikolai, 2019. "Who benefits from using property taxes to finance a labor tax wedge reduction?," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C).
    8. Hickey, Rónán & Lozej, Matija & Smyth, Diarmaid, 2019. "Government Investment, Its Financing and the Public Capital Stock: A Small Open Economy Perspective," Research Technical Papers 9/RT/19, Central Bank of Ireland.
    9. Christopher J. Erceg & Andrea Prestipino & Andrea Raffo, 2018. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Trade Policy," International Finance Discussion Papers 1242, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    10. Ivens, Annika, 2018. "Fiscal devaluation in the Euro area: The role of rigidities, non-tradables, and social security contributions," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 62-81.
    11. Vukšić, Goran & Holzner, Mario, 2016. "Trade and fiscal imbalances in Southeastern Europe: Can fiscal devaluation help?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 568-581.
    12. M¨¦dard MENGUE BIDZO, 2019. "The Hypothesis of Fiscal Devaluation in Developing Countries: The Case of Gabon," Applied Economics and Finance, Redfame publishing, vol. 6(5), pages 70-82, September.
    13. M. Bussière & L. Ferrara & M. Juillard & D. Siena, 2017. "Can Fiscal Budget-Neutral Reforms Stimulate Growth? Model-Based Results," Working papers 625, Banque de France.
    14. Clancy, Daragh & Jacquinot, Pascal & Lozej, Matija, 2016. "Government expenditure composition and fiscal policy spillovers in small open economies within a monetary union," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 305-326.
    15. Font, Barbara Castelletti & Clerc, Pierrick & Lemoine, Matthieu, 2018. "Should euro area countries cut taxes on labour or capital in order to boost their growth?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 279-288.
    16. Hohberger, Stefan & Kraus, Lena, 2016. "Is fiscal devaluation welfare enhancing?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 512-522.
    17. Mario Holzner & Marina Tkalec & Maruška Vizek & Goran Vukšić, 2018. "Fiscal devaluations: evidence using bilateral trade balance data," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 154(2), pages 247-275, May.
    18. Engler, Philipp & Pasch, Sandra & Tervala, Juha, 2018. "Third country effects of fiscal devaluations," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 13-16.
    19. Hubert Gabrisch & Doris Hanzl-Weiss & Mario Holzner & Michael Landesmann & Johannes Pöschl & Hermine Vidovic, 2015. "Steigerung der Wettbewerbsfähigkeit in der Balkanregion – Möglichkeiten und Grenzen," wiiw Research Reports in German language 3, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    20. Maria-Grazia Attinasi & Doris Prammer & Nikolai Stähler & Martino Tasso & Stefan van Parys, 2019. "Budget-Neutral Labor Tax Wedge Reductions: A Sumulation-Based Analysis for the Euro Area," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 15(4), pages 1-54, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    dynamic general equilibrium modeling; fiscal devaluation; trade deficit;

    JEL classification:

    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • H20 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - General

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