IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bdi/wptemi/td_1241_19.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Fiscal devaluation and labour market frictions in a monetary union

Author

Listed:
  • Lorenzo Burlon

    (European Central Bank)

  • Alessandro Notarpietro

    (Bank of Italy)

  • Massimiliano Pisani

    (Bank of Italy)

Abstract

We assess the effects of a fiscal devaluation on economic and labour market conditions in a Member State of the euro area by simulating a monetary union model featuring labour markets with search and matching frictions. The fiscal authority of the Member State enacts a discretionary reduction in the social contribution rate for employers so that the corresponding revenues decrease by 1per cent of the before-shock (steady-state) nominal GDP. The measure is ex ante revenue neutral, because it is financed by a simultaneous discretionary increase in the consumption tax rate that generates additional ex ante revenues equal to 1 per cent of the before-shock GDP. The main results are as follows. First, GDP increases by 0.5 per cent, sustained by the increase in investment and net exports, while consumption decreases. Second, the unemployment rate decreases by 0.3 percentage points. Third, the trade balance improvement is equal to 0.3 per cent of GDP (the improvement in real net exports is partially offset by the deterioration in term of trade). Fourth, the results are rather robust to changes in key parameters.

Suggested Citation

  • Lorenzo Burlon & Alessandro Notarpietro & Massimiliano Pisani, 2019. "Fiscal devaluation and labour market frictions in a monetary union," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1241, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  • Handle: RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_1241_19
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/temi-discussione/2019/2019-1241/en_tema_1241.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Font, Barbara Castelletti & Clerc, Pierrick & Lemoine, Matthieu, 2018. "Should euro area countries cut taxes on labour or capital in order to boost their growth?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 279-288.
    2. Sandra Gomes & Pascal Jacquinot & Matthias Mohr & Massimiliano Pisani, 2013. "Structural Reforms and Macroeconomic Performance in the Euro Area Countries: A Model-Based Assessment," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(1), pages 23-44, February.
    3. Warne, Anders & Coenen, Günter & Christoffel, Kai, 2008. "The new area-wide model of the euro area: a micro-founded open-economy model for forecasting and policy analysis," Working Paper Series 944, European Central Bank.
    4. European Commission, 2018. "Taxation trends in the European Union: 2018 edition," Taxation trends 2018, Directorate General Taxation and Customs Union, European Commission.
    5. Francesco Franco, 2011. "Adjusting to external imbalances within the EMU, the case of Portugal," FEUNL Working Paper Series wp556, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Faculdade de Economia.
    6. Langot, François & Lemoine, Matthieu, 2017. "Strategic fiscal policies in Europe: Why does the labour wedge matter?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 15-29.
    7. Christoffel, Kai & Kuester, Keith & Linzert, Tobias, 2009. "The role of labor markets for euro area monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 53(8), pages 908-936, November.
    8. Pascal Jacquinot & Matija Lozej & Massimiliano Pisani, 2018. "Labor Tax Reforms, Cross-Country Coordination, and the Monetary Policy Stance in the Euro Area: A Structural Model-Based Approach," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 14(3), pages 65-140, June.
    9. Gomes, S. & Jacquinot, P. & Pisani, M., 2016. "Fiscal devaluation in the euro area: A model-based analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PA), pages 58-70.
    10. Giancarlo Corsetti & Gernot J. Müller, 2006. "Twin deficits: squaring theory, evidence and common sense [‘Temporary and permanent government spending in an open economy: some evidence for the United Kingdom’]," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 21(48), pages 598-638.
    11. Maria-Grazia Attinasi & Doris Prammer & Nikolai Stähler & Martino Tasso & Stefan van Parys, 2019. "Budget-Neutral Labor Tax Wedge Reductions: A Sumulation-Based Analysis for the Euro Area," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 15(4), pages 1-54, October.
    12. repec:oup:ecpoli:v:21:y:2006:i:48:p:597-638 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Laxton, Douglas & Pesenti, Paolo, 2003. "Monetary rules for small, open, emerging economies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(5), pages 1109-1146, July.
    14. M. Bussière & L. Ferrara & M. Juillard & D. Siena, 2017. "Can Fiscal Budget-Neutral Reforms Stimulate Growth? Model-Based Results," Working papers 625, Banque de France.
    15. Douglas Laxton, 2008. "Getting to Know the Global Economy Model and Its Philosophy," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 55(2), pages 213-242, June.
    16. Julio J. Rotemberg, 1982. "Monopolistic Price Adjustment and Aggregate Output," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 49(4), pages 517-531.
    17. Luc Everaert & Werner Schule, 2008. "Why It Pays to Synchronize Structural Reforms in the Euro Area Across Markets and Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 55(2), pages 356-366, June.
    18. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Emanuela Ciapanna & Sauro Mocetti & Alessandro Notarpietro, 2020. "The effects of structural reforms: Evidence from Italy," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1303, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gomes, S. & Jacquinot, P. & Pisani, M., 2016. "Fiscal devaluation in the euro area: A model-based analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PA), pages 58-70.
    2. Stähler, Nikolai, 2019. "Who benefits from using property taxes to finance a labor tax wedge reduction?," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C).
    3. Pascal Jacquinot & Matija Lozej & Massimiliano Pisani, 2018. "Labor Tax Reforms, Cross-Country Coordination, and the Monetary Policy Stance in the Euro Area: A Structural Model-Based Approach," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 14(3), pages 65-140, June.
    4. Gadatsch, Niklas & Stähler, Nikolai & Weigert, Benjamin, 2016. "German labor market and fiscal reforms 1999–2008: Can they be blamed for intra-euro area imbalances?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 307-324.
    5. Emanuela Ciapanna & Sauro Mocetti & Alessandro Notarpietro, 2020. "The effects of structural reforms: Evidence from Italy," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1303, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    6. Sandra Gomes & Pascal Jacquinot & Matthias Mohr & Massimiliano Pisani, 2013. "Structural Reforms and Macroeconomic Performance in the Euro Area Countries: A Model-Based Assessment," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(1), pages 23-44, February.
    7. Bokan, N. & Gerali, A. & Gomes, S. & Jacquinot, P. & Pisani, M., 2018. "EAGLE-FLI: A macroeconomic model of banking and financial interdependence in the euro area," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 249-280.
    8. Gabriela Castro & José R. Maria & Paulo Júlio & Ricardo Mourinho Félix & Vanda Almeida, 2013. "Inside PESSOA -A Detailed Description of the Model," Working Papers w201316, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    9. Jacquinot, Pascal & Lozej, Matija & Pisani, Massimiliano, 2020. "Macroeconomic effects of tariffs shocks: the role of the effective lower bound and the labour market," Working Paper Series 2434, European Central Bank.
    10. Daragh Clancy & Rossana Merola, 2016. "ÉIRE Mod: A DSGE Model for Ireland," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 47(1), pages 1-31.
    11. Gomes, S. & Jacquinot, P. & Pisani, M., 2012. "The EAGLE. A model for policy analysis of macroeconomic interdependence in the euro area," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1686-1714.
    12. Font, Barbara Castelletti & Clerc, Pierrick & Lemoine, Matthieu, 2018. "Should euro area countries cut taxes on labour or capital in order to boost their growth?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 279-288.
    13. Pietro Cova & Alessandro Notarpietro & Massimiliano Pisani, 2020. "Protectionism and the effective lower bound in the euro area," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1286, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    14. Ruppert, Kilian & Stähler, Nikolai, 2020. "Household savings, capital investments and public policies: What drives the German current account?," Discussion Papers 41/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    15. Bielecki, Marcin & Stähler, Nikolai, 2018. "Labor tax reductions in Europe: The role of property taxation," Discussion Papers 30/2018, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    16. Clancy, Daragh & Jacquinot, Pascal & Lozej, Matija, 2016. "Government expenditure composition and fiscal policy spillovers in small open economies within a monetary union," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 305-326.
    17. Maria-Grazia Attinasi & Doris Prammer & Nikolai Stähler & Martino Tasso & Stefan van Parys, 2019. "Budget-Neutral Labor Tax Wedge Reductions: A Sumulation-Based Analysis for the Euro Area," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 15(4), pages 1-54, October.
    18. Matthieu Darracq Paries & Pascal Jacquinot & Niki Papadopoulou, 2016. "Synopsis of the Euro Area Financial Crisis," Working Papers 2016-8, Central Bank of Cyprus.
    19. Forni, L. & Gerali, A. & Notarpietro, A. & Pisani, M., 2015. "Euro area, oil and global shocks: An empirical model-based analysis," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 295-314.
    20. Andrea Gerali & Alberto Locarno & Alessandro Notarpietro & Massimiliano Pisani, 2015. "Every cloud has a silver lining. The sovereign crisis and Italian potential output," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1010, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    fiscal devaluation; labour market; trade deficit; dynamic general equilibrium modelling;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • H20 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_1241_19. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bdigvit.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bdigvit.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.