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Structural reforms and zero lower bound in a monetary union

Author

Listed:
  • Andrea Gerali

    () (Bank of Italy)

  • Alessandro Notarpietro

    () (Bank of Italy)

  • Massimiliano Pisani

    () (Bank of Italy)

Abstract

We assess the short- and medium-term macroeconomic effects of competition-friendly reforms in the service sector when the monetary policy rate is stuck at the zero lower bound (ZLB) in a monetary union. We calibrate a large-scale multi-country multi-sector dynamic general equilibrium model to one region within the euro area, the rest of the euro area and the rest of the world. We find first, that unilateral reforms by a single country do not affect the number of periods for which the ZLB holds and have mild medium-term expansionary effects on GDP. Second, reforms simultaneously implemented in the entire euro area can favor an earlier exit from the ZLB if they have sufficiently inflationary effects, which happens when the gradual increase in the supply of goods and services is matched by a sufficiently large increase in investment, associated with higher expected levels of output. Reforms have expansionary effects because of their positive wealth effect, which more than counterbalances the recessionary substitution effect associated with higher real interest rates. If investment cannot immediately react to the reforms, then the latter has a deflationary impact and the duration of the ZLB is not reduced.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrea Gerali & Alessandro Notarpietro & Massimiliano Pisani, 2015. "Structural reforms and zero lower bound in a monetary union," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1002, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  • Handle: RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_1002_15
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gomes, S. & Jacquinot, P. & Pisani, M., 2012. "The EAGLE. A model for policy analysis of macroeconomic interdependence in the euro area," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 1686-1714.
    2. Sandra Gomes & Pascal Jacquinot & Matthias Mohr & Massimiliano Pisani, 2013. "Structural Reforms and Macroeconomic Performance in the Euro Area Countries: A Model-Based Assessment," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 16(1), pages 23-44, February.
    3. Warne, Anders & Coenen, Günter & Christoffel, Kai, 2008. "The new area-wide model of the euro area: a micro-founded open-economy model for forecasting and policy analysis," Working Paper Series 944, European Central Bank.
    4. Pierpaolo Benigno, 2009. "Price Stability with Imperfect Financial Integration," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(s1), pages 121-149, February.
    5. Eggertsson, Gauti & Ferrero, Andrea & Raffo, Andrea, 2014. "Can structural reforms help Europe?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 2-22.
    6. Julio J. Rotemberg, 1982. "Monopolistic Price Adjustment and Aggregate Output," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 49(4), pages 517-531.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Cacciatore, Matteo & Duval, Romain & Fiori, Giuseppe & Ghironi, Fabio, 2016. "Market reforms in the time of imbalance," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 69-93.
    2. Cacciatore, Matteo & Fiori, Giuseppe & Ghironi, Fabio, 2016. "Market deregulation and optimal monetary policy in a monetary union," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 120-137.
    3. Bofinger, Peter & Schnabel, Isabel & Feld, Lars P. & Schmidt, Christoph M. & Wieland, Volker, 2017. "Für eine zukunftsorientierte Wirtschaftspolitik. Jahresgutachten 2017/18," Annual Economic Reports / Jahresgutachten, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung, volume 127, number 201718.
    4. Andrea Gerali & Alessandro Notarpietro & Massimiliano Pisani, 2015. "Structural Reforms, Investment and Zero Lower Bound in a Monetary Union," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 83, pages 120-139, September.
    5. Óscar Arce & Samuel Hurtado & Carlos Thomas, 2016. "Policy Spillovers and Synergies in a Monetary Union," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 12(3), pages 219-277, September.
    6. Bofinger, Peter & Schnabel, Isabel & Feld, Lars P. & Schmidt, Christoph M. & Wieland, Volker, 2015. "Zukunftsfähigkeit in den Mittelpunkt. Jahresgutachten 2015/16," Annual Economic Reports / Jahresgutachten, German Council of Economic Experts / Sachverständigenrat zur Begutachtung der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung, volume 127, number 201516.
    7. Dimitris Papageorgiou & Evangelia Vourvachaki, 2015. "The Macroeconomic Impact of Structural Reforms in Product and Labour Markets: Trade-Offs and Complementarities," Working Papers 197, Bank of Greece.
    8. Masuch, Klaus & Anderton, Robert & Setzer, Ralph & Benalal, Nicholai, 2018. "Structural policies in the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 210, European Central Bank.
    9. Ciccarelli, Matteo & Osbat, Chiara, 2017. "Low inflation in the euro area: Causes and consequences," Occasional Paper Series 181, European Central Bank.
    10. Papageorgiou, Dimitris & Vourvachaki, Evangelia, 2017. "Macroeconomic effects of structural reforms and fiscal consolidations: Trade-offs and complementarities," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 54-73.
    11. Lorenzo Burlon & Andrea Gerali & Alessandro Notarpietro & Massimiliano Pisani, 2015. "Inflation, financial conditions and non-standard monetary policy in a monetary union. A model-based evaluation," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1015, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    competition; markups; monetary policy; zero lower bound;

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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