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Fiscal devaluation in the euro area: a model-based analysis

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  • Sandra Gomes
  • P. Jacquinot
  • M. Pisani

Abstract

We assess the effects of a temporary fiscal devaluation enacted in Spain or Portugal on the trade balance by simulating EAGLE, a large-scale multi-country dynamic general equilibrium model of the euro area. Social contributions paid by firms are reduced by 1 percent of GDP for four years and are financed by increasing the consumption tax. Our main results are the following. First, in the first year following implementation, the Spanish trade balance improves by 0.5 percent of GDP, the (before-consumption tax) real exchange rate depreciates by 0.7 percent and the terms of trade deteriorate by 1 percent. Second, similar results are obtained in the case of Portugal. Third, the trade balance improves when the fiscal devaluation is also enacted in the rest of the euro area, albeit to a lower extent than in the case of unilateral (country-specific) implementation. Fourth, quantitative results crucially depend on the degree of substitutability between domestic and imported tradables.

Suggested Citation

  • Sandra Gomes & P. Jacquinot & M. Pisani, 2014. "Fiscal devaluation in the euro area: a model-based analysis," Working Papers w201414, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  • Handle: RePEc:ptu:wpaper:w201414
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    Cited by:

    1. Gadatsch, Niklas & Stähler, Nikolai & Weigert, Benjamin, 2016. "German labor market and fiscal reforms 1999–2008: Can they be blamed for intra-euro area imbalances?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 307-324.
    2. Burlon, L. & Notarpietro, A. & Pisani, M., 2021. "Fiscal devaluation and labor market frictions in a monetary union," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 135-156.
    3. Pascal Jacquinot & Matija Lozej & Massimiliano Pisani, 2018. "Labor Tax Reforms, Cross-Country Coordination, and the Monetary Policy Stance in the Euro Area: A Structural Model-Based Approach," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 14(3), pages 65-140, June.
    4. Lukas Vogel, 2015. "Stabilisation and Rebalancing with Fiscal or Monetary Devaluation: A Model-Based Comparison," CESifo Working Paper Series 5625, CESifo.
    5. Batini, Nicoletta & Melina, Giovanni & Villa, Stefania, 2019. "Fiscal buffers, private debt, and recession: The good, the bad and the ugly," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    6. Stähler, Nikolai, 2019. "Who benefits from using property taxes to finance a labor tax wedge reduction?," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C).
    7. Lukas Vogel, 2017. "Stabilization and Rebalancing with Fiscal or Monetary Devaluation: a Model-Based Comparison," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo, vol. 63(2), pages 235-253.
    8. Font, Barbara Castelletti & Clerc, Pierrick & Lemoine, Matthieu, 2018. "Should euro area countries cut taxes on labour or capital in order to boost their growth?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 279-288.
    9. Hohberger, Stefan & Kraus, Lena, 2016. "Is fiscal devaluation welfare enhancing?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 512-522.
    10. Christopher Erceg & Andrea Prestipino & Andrea Raffo, 2018. "The Macroeconomic Effect of Trade Policy," 2018 Meeting Papers 221, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    11. Hubert Gabrisch & Doris Hanzl-Weiss & Mario Holzner & Michael Landesmann & Johannes Pöschl & Hermine Vidovic, 2015. "Steigerung der Wettbewerbsfähigkeit in der Balkanregion – Möglichkeiten und Grenzen," wiiw Research Reports in German language 3, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
    12. Bielecki, Marcin & Stähler, Nikolai, 2018. "Labor tax reductions in Europe: The role of property taxation," Discussion Papers 30/2018, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    13. Mario Holzner & Marina Tkalec & Goran Vukšić, 2019. "Composition of trade flows and the effectiveness of fiscal devaluation," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(2), pages 453-477, February.
    14. Hickey, Rónán & Lozej, Matija & Smyth, Diarmaid, 2019. "Government Investment, Its Financing and the Public Capital Stock: A Small Open Economy Perspective," Research Technical Papers 9/RT/19, Central Bank of Ireland.
    15. Ivens, Annika, 2018. "Fiscal devaluation in the Euro area: The role of rigidities, non-tradables, and social security contributions," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 62-81.
    16. Vukšić, Goran & Holzner, Mario, 2016. "Trade and fiscal imbalances in Southeastern Europe: Can fiscal devaluation help?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 568-581.
    17. M¨¦dard MENGUE BIDZO, 2019. "The Hypothesis of Fiscal Devaluation in Developing Countries: The Case of Gabon," Applied Economics and Finance, Redfame publishing, vol. 6(5), pages 70-82, September.
    18. M. Bussière & L. Ferrara & M. Juillard & D. Siena, 2017. "Can Fiscal Budget-Neutral Reforms Stimulate Growth? Model-Based Results," Working papers 625, Banque de France.
    19. Clancy, Daragh & Jacquinot, Pascal & Lozej, Matija, 2016. "Government expenditure composition and fiscal policy spillovers in small open economies within a monetary union," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 305-326.
    20. Hickey, Rónán & Lozej, Matija & Smyth, Diarmaid, 2020. "Financing government investment and its implications for public capital: A small open economy perspective," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 620-641.
    21. Hasim Akca & Oguzhan Bozatli, 2020. "Fiscal devaluation and net export: dynamic panel data analysis on the Euro Area," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(18), pages 1500-1504, October.
    22. Mario Holzner & Marina Tkalec & Maruška Vizek & Goran Vukšić, 2018. "Fiscal devaluations: evidence using bilateral trade balance data," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 154(2), pages 247-275, May.
    23. Giampaolo Arachi & Debora Assisi, 2021. "Fiscal devaluation and relative prices: evidence from the Euro area," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 28(3), pages 685-716, June.
    24. Engler, Philipp & Pasch, Sandra & Tervala, Juha, 2018. "Third country effects of fiscal devaluations," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 13-16.
    25. Maria-Grazia Attinasi & Doris Prammer & Nikolai Stähler & Martino Tasso & Stefan van Parys, 2019. "Budget-Neutral Labor Tax Wedge Reductions: A Sumulation-Based Analysis for the Euro Area," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 15(4), pages 1-54, October.

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    JEL classification:

    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • H20 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - General

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