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Trade adjustment in the European Union - a structural estimation approach

Author

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  • Osbat, Chiara
  • Corbo, Vesna

Abstract

We estimate the elasticity of substitution of a country's imports, and that of its exports on the world market, for EU countries using sector level trade data. We present a new empirical strategy based on the identification scheme by Feenstra (1994), which enables the estimation of elasticities from data on exports. Moreover, our use of bootstrap methods allows us to obtain better elasticity measures, and to better characterize their accuracy. Our results show much heterogeneity in the estimates of the elasticity of substitution across industrial sectors. This, in turn, points to heterogeneity across countries, due to different production and trade structures. We obtain aggregate elasticities for the EU27 countries, with a mean of 3.5 for imports and 4.0 for exports, bringing us closer to traditional estimates and bridging the gap between the newer micro data estimates and the more traditional estimates found in the macroeconomic literature. JEL Classification: C23, F14, F47

Suggested Citation

  • Osbat, Chiara & Corbo, Vesna, 2013. "Trade adjustment in the European Union - a structural estimation approach," Working Paper Series 1535, European Central Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20131535
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    File URL: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/pdf/scpwps/ecbwp1535.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Lukas Mohler & Michael Seitz, 2012. "The gains from variety in the European Union," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 148(3), pages 475-500, September.
    2. Jean Imbs & Isabelle Mejean, 2015. "Elasticity Optimism," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(3), pages 43-83, July.
    3. Feenstra & R.C., 1990. "New Goods and Index Members: U.S. Import Prices," Papers 371, California Davis - Institute of Governmental Affairs.
    4. Justin Pierce & Peter Schott, 2009. "Concording U.S. Harmonized System Categories Over Time," Working Papers 09-11, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
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    Cited by:

    1. Gomes, S. & Jacquinot, P. & Pisani, M., 2016. "Fiscal devaluation in the euro area: A model-based analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PA), pages 58-70.
    2. Maria Cipollina & David Laborde Debucquet & Luca Salvatici, 2017. "The tide that does not raise all boats: an assessment of EU preferential trade policies," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 153(1), pages 199-231, February.
    3. Clancy, Daragh & Jacquinot, Pascal & Lozej, Matija, 2016. "Government expenditure composition and fiscal policy spillovers in small open economies within a monetary union," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 305-326.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    aggregation; calibration of macroeconomic models; Elasticity of Substitution; heterogeneity;

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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