IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fau/wpaper/wp2019_19.html

Estimating the Armington Elasticity: The Importance of Data Choice and Publication Bias

Author

Listed:
  • Josef Bajzik

    (Czech National Bank, Na Prikope 28, 115 03 Prague 1, Czech Republic)

  • Tomas Havranek

    (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University, Opletalova 26, 110 00, Prague, Czech Republic)

  • Zuzana Irsova

    (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University, Opletalova 26, 110 00, Prague, Czech Republic)

  • Jiri Schwarz

    (Czech National Bank, Na Prikope 28, 115 03 Prague 1, Czech Republic)

Abstract

A key parameter in international economics is the elasticity of substitution between domestic and foreign goods, also called the Armington elasticity. Yet estimates vary widely. We collect 3,524 reported estimates of the elasticity, construct 34 variables that reflect the context in which researchers obtain their estimates, and examine what drives the heterogeneity in the results. To account for inherent model uncertainty, we employ Bayesian and frequentist model averaging. We present the first application of newly developed non-linear techniques to correct for publication bias. Our main results are threefold. First, there is publication bias against small and statistically insignificant elasticities. Second, differences in results are best explained by differences in data: aggregation, frequency, size, and dimension. Third, the mean elasticity implied by the literature after correcting for both publication bias and potential misspecifications is 3.

Suggested Citation

  • Josef Bajzik & Tomas Havranek & Zuzana Irsova & Jiri Schwarz, 2019. "Estimating the Armington Elasticity: The Importance of Data Choice and Publication Bias," Working Papers IES 2019/19, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Jul 2019.
    • Handle: RePEc:fau:wpaper:wp2019_19
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://ies.fsv.cuni.cz/sci/publication/show/id/6107/lang/cs
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jacopo Timini & Francesca Viani, 2022. "A highway across the Atlantic? Trade and welfare effects of the EU-Mercosur agreement," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 169, pages 291-308.
    2. Petr Polak & Nikol Polakova & Anna Tlusta, 2020. "How Bad Are Trade Wars? Evidence from Tariffs," Working Papers 2020/15, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department.
    3. Tobias Sytsma, 2020. "The Impact of Hurricanes on Trade and Welfare: Evidence from US Port-level Exports," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 4(3), pages 625-655, October.
    4. Dominika Ehrenbergerova & Josef Bajzik & Tomas Havranek, 2023. "When Does Monetary Policy Sway House Prices? A Meta-Analysis," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 71(2), pages 538-573, June.
    5. Ross, Andrew G. & McGregor, Peter G. & Swales, J Kim, 2024. "Labour market dynamics in the era of technological advancements: The system-wide impacts of labour augmenting technological change," Technology in Society, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    6. Kenneth W. Clements & Marc Jim M. Mariano & George Verikios, 2021. "Foreign-domestic substitution, import penetration and CGE modelling," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(35), pages 4080-4099, July.
    7. Bajzik, Josef, 2021. "Trading volume and stock returns: A meta-analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    8. Eduardo Gutiérrez & Aitor Lacuesta & César Martín‐Machuca, 2024. "Brexit: Trade Diversion due to Trade Policy Uncertainty," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 86(5), pages 1058-1088, October.
    9. Simona Malovana & Martin Hodula & Josef Bajzik & Zuzana Gric, 2021. "A Tale of Different Capital Ratios: How to Correctly Assess the Impact of Capital Regulation on Lending," Working Papers 2021/8, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department.
    10. Grant, Allan & Figus, Gioele & Schubert, Torben, 2022. "Understanding the macroeconomic effects of public research: An application of a regression-microfounded CGE-model to the case of the Fraunhofer-Gesellschaft in Germany," Discussion Papers "Innovation Systems and Policy Analysis" 72, Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research (ISI).
    11. Simona Malovaná & Martin Hodula & Zuzana Gric & Josef Bajzík, 2025. "Borrower‐based macroprudential measures and credit growth: How biased is the existing literature?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(1), pages 66-102, February.
    12. Dominika Ehrenbergerova & Josef Bajzik, 2020. "The Effect of Monetary Policy on House Prices - How Strong is the Transmission?," Working Papers 2020/14, Czech National Bank, Research and Statistics Department.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • C83 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Survey Methods; Sampling Methods
    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fau:wpaper:wp2019_19. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Natalie Svarcova (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/icunicz.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.