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Structural reforms, fiscal consolidation and external rebalancing in monetary union: A model-based analysis

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  • Vogel, Lukas

Abstract

The paper analyses the impact of structural reforms on external positions in monetary union in a 3-region version of QUEST III. Wage cost moderation and fiscal consolidation improve the current account balance in the medium term, but positive income effects tend to offset the initial increase in the long term. The general pattern is robust across alternative levels of initial foreign indebtedness. While lasting imbalance correction requires a contraction of debt-financed domestic demand, supply-side reform can mitigate the associated output contraction. A scenario is given as illustration that would reverse the 20% competitiveness loss in the EMU periphery during the 2000s and reduce foreign and government debt by 30% and 50% of GDP within ten years.

Suggested Citation

  • Vogel, Lukas, 2012. "Structural reforms, fiscal consolidation and external rebalancing in monetary union: A model-based analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1286-1298.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:29:y:2012:i:4:p:1286-1298
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2012.04.018
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    5. Dimitris Papageorgiou & Evangelia Vourvachaki, 2015. "The Macroeconomic Impact of Structural Reforms in Product and Labour Markets: Trade-Offs and Complementarities," Working Papers 197, Bank of Greece.
    6. Gomes, S. & Jacquinot, P. & Pisani, M., 2016. "Fiscal devaluation in the euro area: A model-based analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PA), pages 58-70.
    7. Cole, Alexandre Lucas & Guerello, Chiara & Traficante, Guido, 2023. "Government debt deleveraging in the EMU," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 296-324.
    8. George Economides & Dimitris Papageorgiou & Apostolis Philippopoulos, 2020. "Macroeconomic Policy Lessons for Greece from the Debt Crisis," CESifo Working Paper Series 8188, CESifo.
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    10. Jocelyn Boussard & Benoît Campagne, 2017. "Fiscal policy coordination in a monetary union at the zero lower bound," Economie et Statistique / Economics and Statistics, Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (INSEE), issue 494-495-4, pages 65-90.
    11. Campagne, Benoît & Poissonnier, Aurélien, 2018. "Structural reforms in DSGE models: Output gains but welfare losses," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 397-421.
    12. Matthias Burgert & Werner Roeger & Janos Varga & Jan in 't Veld & Lukas Vogel, 2020. "A Global Economy Version of QUEST: Simulation Properties," European Economy - Discussion Papers 126, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    13. George Economides & Dimitris Papageorgiou & Apostolis Philippopoulos, 2017. "The driving forces of the current Greek great depression," Working Papers 201703, Athens University Of Economics and Business, Department of Economics.
    14. Papageorgiou, Dimitris & Vourvachaki, Evangelia, 2017. "Macroeconomic effects of structural reforms and fiscal consolidations: Trade-offs and complementarities," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 54-73.
    15. Wojciech Balcerowicz & Anamaria Maftei & Janos Varga, 2019. "Labour Taxation in Romania: Revised, but not changed," European Economy - Economic Briefs 050, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    16. Hochmuth, Brigitte & Moyen, Stephane & Stähler, Nikolai, 2019. "Labor market reforms, precautionary savings, and global imbalances," Discussion Papers 13/2019, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    17. Philipp Heimberger, 2018. "What Explains Austria’s Export Market Performance?," wiiw Working Papers 149, The Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies, wiiw.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    External imbalances; Monetary union; Structural reforms; Fiscal consolidation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission

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