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Real convergence and its illusions

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  • Kolasa, Marcin

Abstract

This paper uses the EAGLE, a multi-country dynamic general equilibrium model, to illustrate dynamic adjustments in a small open economy undergoing real convergence. We consider the effects of productivity catch-up and misperceptions about future productivity developments. Our results indicate that even if real convergence takes the form of a gradual process, the dynamic responses of key macrovariables can be far from smooth. We also find that overly optimistic expectations about productivity shifts can generate sizable boom-bust cycles and so be relevant in accounting for cyclical deviations from a sustainable real convergence path. Our comparisons across alternative monetary regimes reveal that a flexible exchange rate helps to smooth real convergence processes and misperceptions associated with tradable sector productivity, while the opposite usually holds true for scenarios based on nontradable sector developments. JEL Classification: D58, E32, F41

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  • Kolasa, Marcin, 2010. "Real convergence and its illusions," Working Paper Series 1231, European Central Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20101231
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    Cited by:

    1. Cristian Stefan Ovidiu, 2011. "The Risks Of A Too Quick Euro Adoption By The Eu Member States. The Case Of Portugal," Annals of Faculty of Economics, University of Oradea, Faculty of Economics, vol. 1(2), pages 25-32, December.
    2. Brian Micallef, 2013. "Measuring the effects of structural reforms in Malta: an analysis using the EAGLE model," CBM Working Papers WP/01/2013, Central Bank of Malta.
    3. Clancy, Daragh & Jacquinot, Pascal & Lozej, Matija, 2014. "The Effects of Government Spending in a Small Open Economy within a Monetary Union," Research Technical Papers 12/RT/14, Central Bank of Ireland.
    4. Michał Brzoza-Brzezina & Pascal Jacquinot & Marcin Kolasa, 2014. "Can We Prevent Boom-Bust Cycles During Euro Area Accession?," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 25(1), pages 35-69, February.
    5. Mădălina AVRAM & Constantin POSTOIU, 2016. "Territorial patterns of development in the European Union," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(1(606), S), pages 77-88, Spring.
    6. Vogel, Lukas, 2012. "Structural reforms, fiscal consolidation and external rebalancing in monetary union: A model-based analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1286-1298.
    7. Chambers, Dustin & Dhongde, Shatakshee, 2016. "Convergence in income distributions: Evidence from a panel of countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 262-270.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Boom-bust cycles; dynamic general equilibrium models; real convergence;

    JEL classification:

    • D58 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Computable and Other Applied General Equilibrium Models
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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