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Can we prevent boom-bust cycles during euro area accession?

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  • Brzoza-Brzezina, Michał
  • Jacquinot, Pascal
  • Kolasa, Marcin

Abstract

Euro-area accession caused boom-bust cycles in several catching-up economies. Declining interest rates and easier financing conditions fuelled spending and worsened the current account balance. Over time inflation deteriorated external competitiveness and lowered domestic demand, turning the boom into a bust. We ask whether such a scenario can be avoided using macroeconomic tools that are available in the period of joining a monetary union: central parity revaluation, fiscal tightening or increased taxation. While all these policies can be used to cool down the output boom, exchange rate revaluation seems the most attractive option. It simultaneously trims the expansion of output and domestic demand, reduces the cost pressure and ranks first in terms of welfare. JEL Classification: E52, E58, E63

Suggested Citation

  • Brzoza-Brzezina, Michał & Jacquinot, Pascal & Kolasa, Marcin, 2010. "Can we prevent boom-bust cycles during euro area accession?," Working Paper Series 1280, European Central Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20101280
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    Cited by:

    1. Clancy, Daragh & Jacquinot, Pascal & Lozej, Matija, 2014. "The Effects of Government Spending in a Small Open Economy within a Monetary Union," Research Technical Papers 12/RT/14, Central Bank of Ireland.
    2. Ma³gorzata Skibiñska, 2015. "Impact of labour market shocks on business cycle fluctuations in Poland," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 46(1), pages 1-40.
    3. Marcin Kolasa & Krzysztof Makarski & Michal Brzoza-Brzezina, 2015. "Crisis, contagion and international policy spillovers under foreign ownership of banks," 2015 Meeting Papers 595, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    4. Brzoza-Brzezina, Michał & Kolasa, Marcin & Makarski, Krzysztof, 2017. "Monetary and macroprudential policy with foreign currency loans," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, pages 352-372.
    5. Daragh Clancy & Pascal Jacquinot & Matija Lozej, 2015. "Government expenditure composition and fiscal policy spillovers in a small open economy within a monetary union," Working Papers 4, European Stability Mechanism.
    6. A team of the Working Group on Econometric Modelling of the European System of Central Banks, 2012. "Competitiveness and external imbalances within the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 139, European Central Bank.
    7. Michał Brzoza-Brzezina & Jacek Kotłowski & Kamil Wierus, 2015. "Can interest rate spreads stabilize the euro area?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(34-35), pages 3696-3709, July.
    8. Malgorzata Skibinska, 2015. "What drives the labour wedge? A comparison between CEE countries and the Euro Area," IBS Working Papers 14/2015, Instytut Badan Strukturalnych.
    9. Clancy, Daragh & Jacquinot, Pascal & Lozej, Matija, 2016. "Government expenditure composition and fiscal policy spillovers in small open economies within a monetary union," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, pages 305-326.
    10. Malgorzata Skibinska, 2016. "What drives the labour wedge? A comparison between CEE countries and the Euro Area," EcoMod2016 9061, EcoMod.
    11. Brian Micallef, 2013. "Measuring the effects of structural reforms in Malta: an analysis using the EAGLE model," CBM Working Papers WP/01/2013, Central Bank of Malta.
    12. Skibińska, Małgorzata, 2016. "What drives the labour wedge? A comparison between CEE countries and the Euro Area," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 148-161.
    13. Hubrich, Kirstin & Tetlow, Robert J., 2015. "Financial stress and economic dynamics: The transmission of crises," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, pages 100-115.
    14. Konov, Joshua Ioji, 2012. "Market Economy under Rapid Globalization and Rising Productivity," MPRA Paper 48750, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Agnieszka Stążka-Gawrysiak, 2011. "Poland on the road to the euro: How serious is the risk of boom-bust cycles after the euro adoption? An empirical analysis," NBP Working Papers 103, Narodowy Bank Polski, Economic Research Department.
    16. Matus Senaj & Milan Vyskrabka, 2011. "European Taxes in a Laboratory," Working and Discussion Papers WP 2/2011, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.
    17. Maciej Ryczkowski, 2016. "Poland as an inflation nutter:The story of successful output stabilization," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics, vol. 34(2), pages 363-392.
    18. Matus Senaj & Milan Vyskrabka, 2015. "Labor Tax Harmonization in a Multi-Country Model," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 65(3), pages 192-210, May.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Boom-bust cycles; dynamic general equilibrium models; euro area accession;

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy

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