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Can we prevent boom-bust cycles during euro area accession?

Author

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  • Kolasa, Marcin
  • Brzoza-Brzezina, Michał
  • Jacquinot, Pascal

Abstract

Euro-area accession caused boom-bust cycles in several catching-up economies. Declining interest rates and easier financing conditions fuelled spending and worsened the current account balance. Over time inflation deteriorated external competitiveness and lowered domestic demand, turning the boom into a bust. We ask whether such a scenario can be avoided using macroeconomic tools that are available in the period of joining a monetary union: central parity revaluation, fiscal tightening or increased taxation. While all these policies can be used to cool down the output boom, exchange rate revaluation seems the most attractive option. It simultaneously trims the expansion of output and domestic demand, reduces the cost pressure and ranks first in terms of welfare. JEL Classification: E52, E58, E63

Suggested Citation

  • Kolasa, Marcin & Brzoza-Brzezina, Michał & Jacquinot, Pascal, 2010. "Can we prevent boom-bust cycles during euro area accession?," Working Paper Series 1280, European Central Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20101280
    Note: 725400
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    Cited by:

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    2. Ma³gorzata Skibiñska, 2015. "Impact of labour market shocks on business cycle fluctuations in Poland," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 46(1), pages 1-40.
    3. Brzoza-Brzezina, Michał & Kolasa, Marcin & Makarski, Krzysztof, 2018. "Crisis, contagion and international policy spillovers under foreign ownership of banks," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 293-304.
    4. Osbat, Chiara & Jochem, Alex & Özyurt, Selin & Tello, Patry & Bragoudakis, Zacharias & Micallef, Brian & Sideris, Dimitris & Papadopoulou, Niki & Ajevskis, Viktors & Krekó, Judit & Gaulier, Guillaume , 2012. "Competitiveness and external imbalances within the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 139, European Central Bank.
    5. Alban Moura & Kyriacos Lambrias, 2018. "LU-EAGLE: A DSGE model for Luxembourg within the euro area and global economy," BCL working papers 122, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    6. Andrzej Cieślik & Jan Teresiński, 2020. "Comparing business cycles in the Eurozone and in Poland: a Bayesian DSGE approach," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 51(4), pages 317-366.
    7. Brzoza-Brzezina, Michał & Kolasa, Marcin & Makarski, Krzysztof, 2017. "Monetary and macroprudential policy with foreign currency loans," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 54(PB), pages 352-372.
    8. Hickey, Rónán & Lozej, Matija & Smyth, Diarmaid, 2019. "Government Investment, Its Financing and the Public Capital Stock: A Small Open Economy Perspective," Research Technical Papers 9/RT/19, Central Bank of Ireland.
    9. Michał Brzoza-Brzezina & Jacek Kotłowski & Kamil Wierus, 2015. "Can interest rate spreads stabilize the euro area?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(34-35), pages 3696-3709, July.
    10. Aneta Hryckiewicz & Lukasz Kozlowski, 2020. "Should we be afraid of powerful banks? The trade-off between bank power and liquidity buffer," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 51(4), pages 437-466.
    11. Clancy, Daragh & Jacquinot, Pascal & Lozej, Matija, 2016. "Government expenditure composition and fiscal policy spillovers in small open economies within a monetary union," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 305-326.
    12. Skibińska, Małgorzata, 2016. "What drives the labour wedge? A comparison between CEE countries and the Euro Area," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 148-161.
    13. Brian Micallef, 2013. "Measuring the effects of structural reforms in Malta: an analysis using the EAGLE model," CBM Working Papers WP/01/2013, Central Bank of Malta.
    14. Clancy, Daragh & Jacquinot, Pascal & Lozej, Matija, 2014. "The Effects of Government Spending in a Small Open Economy within a Monetary Union," Research Technical Papers 12/RT/14, Central Bank of Ireland.
    15. Konov, Joshua Ioji, 2012. "Market Economy under Rapid Globalization and Rising Productivity," MPRA Paper 48750, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Hickey, Rónán & Lozej, Matija & Smyth, Diarmaid, 2020. "Financing government investment and its implications for public capital: A small open economy perspective," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 620-641.
    17. Daragh Clancy & Pascal Jacquinot & Matija Lozej, 2015. "Government expenditure composition and fiscal policy spillovers in a small open economy within a monetary union," Working Papers 4, European Stability Mechanism.
    18. A team of the Working Group on Econometric Modelling of the European System of Central Banks, 2012. "Competitiveness and external imbalances within the euro area," Occasional Paper Series 139, European Central Bank.
    19. Skibińska, Małgorzata, 2016. "What drives the labour wedge? A comparison between CEE countries and the Euro Area," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 148-161.
    20. José R. Maria & Paulo Júlio, 2019. "The countercyclical capital buffer: A DSGE approach," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    21. Agnieszka Stążka-Gawrysiak, 2011. "Poland on the road to the euro: How serious is the risk of boom-bust cycles after the euro adoption? An empirical analysis," NBP Working Papers 103, Narodowy Bank Polski, Economic Research Department.
    22. Matus Senaj & Milan Vyskrabka, 2011. "European Taxes in a Laboratory," Working and Discussion Papers WP 2/2011, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.
    23. Maciej Ryczkowski, 2016. "Poland as an inflation nutter:The story of successful output stabilization," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics and Business, vol. 34(2), pages 363-392.
    24. Matus Senaj & Milan Vyskrabka, 2015. "Labor Tax Harmonization in a Multi-Country Model," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 65(3), pages 192-210, May.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Boom-bust cycles; dynamic general equilibrium models; euro area accession;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy

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