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Would it have paid to be in the eurozone?

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Abstract

Giving up an independent monetary policy and a flexible exchange rate are the key sources of costs and benefits entailed to joining a monetary union. In this paper we analyze their ex post impact on the stability of the Polish economy during the recent financial crisis. To this end we construct a small open economy DSGE model and estimate it for Poland and the euro area. Then we run a counterfactual simulation, assuming Poland’s euro area accession in 1q2007. The results are striking - volatilities of GDP and inflation increase substantially. In particular, had Poland adopted the euro, GDP growth would have oscillated between -6% and +9% (-9% to +11% under more extreme assumptions) instead of between 1% and 7%. We conclude that during the analyzed period independent monetary policy and, in particular, the flexible exchange rate played an important stabilizing role for the Polish economy.

Suggested Citation

  • Michał Brzoza-Brzezina & Krzysztof Makarski & Grzegorz Wesołowski, 2012. "Would it have paid to be in the eurozone?," NBP Working Papers 128, Narodowy Bank Polski, Economic Research Department.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbp:nbpmis:128
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Henryk Bak & Sebastian Maciejewski, 2015. "Asymmetric shocks and international risk sharing in the European Monetary Union and the European Union," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 46(6), pages 523-564.
    2. Slawomir Czech, 2015. "The Political Economy Of Staying Outside The Eurozone: Poland And Sweden Compared," Oeconomia Copernicana, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 6(3), pages 23-43, September.
    3. Michal Andrle & Roberto Garcia-Saltos & Giang Ho, 2014. "A Model-Based Analysis of Spillovers; The Case of Poland and the Euro Area," IMF Working Papers 14/186, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Grzegorz Wesołowski, 2016. "Do long term interest rates drive GDP and inflation in small open economies? Evidence from Poland," NBP Working Papers 242, Narodowy Bank Polski, Economic Research Department.
    5. Andrzej Torój & Karolina Konopczak, 2012. "Crisis Resistance Versus Monetary Regime: A Polish–Slovak Counterfactual Exercise," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, CEJEME, vol. 4(1), pages 1-22, March.
    6. Bąk Henryk & Maciejewski Sebastian, 2015. "Endogeneity and Specialization in the European Monetary Union," International Journal of Management and Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of World Economy, vol. 46(1), pages 7-40, June.
    7. Michal Adam & Witold Kozinski & Janusz Zielinski, 2013. "To what extent can central banks influence exchange rates with foreign exchange interventions? The case of Poland," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Sovereign risk: a world without risk-free assets?, volume 73, pages 279-291 Bank for International Settlements.
    8. repec:eee:ecmode:v:67:y:2017:i:c:p:45-54 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    optimum currency area; euro-area accession; emerging market;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes

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