IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/vrs/ijomae/v46y2015i1p7-40n1.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Endogeneity and Specialization in the European Monetary Union

Author

Listed:
  • Bąk Henryk

    (Warsaw School of Economics, Poland)

  • Maciejewski Sebastian

    (PGE Group, Warsaw, Poland)

Abstract

There has been a broad discussion about the viability of the European Monetary Union (EMU) in its present and prospective confines. Generally, the EMU, consisting of 19 countries, is not considered an optimal currency area due to low labor market flexibility, autonomous fiscal policies, and structural differences among its members. Considerations about the endogeneity effect of currency unions lead to the question whether the EMU will become more viable over time. According to the endogenity hypothesis formulated by Frankel and Rose [1996, 2000], a common currency area may gradually become an optimal currency area at some future point (ex post unification), despite not having been an optimal currency area (OCA) prior to (ex ante) currency unification. Currency unification should bring about increased intra-industry trade and greater business cycle synchronization among member states. The most recent literature and analyses presented in this paper suggest that the endogenity effect in the EMU has been frail since its onset. While real convergence between EMU member states has not advanced, divergence in i.a. economic structures, national income and productivity levels is observed. The most important economic mechanisms reinforcing convergence and divergence among monetary union members are presented in this paper. Using recent data and related research results, we show a significant divergence in economic structures, business cycle synchronization and productivity levels among Eurozone members in the last decade. The Krugman sectorial dissimilarity index is applied to measure changes in industrial similarity among member countries and the Hodrick-Prescott filter to estimate business cycle synchronization in the EMU. These divergence tendencies have been strengthened by the global financial crisis of 2008 and persist, calling for reforms and new policies within the EMU.

Suggested Citation

  • Bąk Henryk & Maciejewski Sebastian, 2015. "Endogeneity and Specialization in the European Monetary Union," International Journal of Management and Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of World Economy, vol. 46(1), pages 7-40, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:vrs:ijomae:v:46:y:2015:i:1:p:7-40:n:1
    DOI: 10.1515/ijme-2015-0020
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1515/ijme-2015-0020
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1515/ijme-2015-0020?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Frankel, Jeffrey A & Rose, Andrew K, 1998. "The Endogeneity of the Optimum Currency Area Criteria," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(449), pages 1009-1025, July.
    2. Pierfederico Asdrubali & Bent E. Sørensen & Oved Yosha, 1996. "Channels of Interstate Risk Sharing: United States 1963–1990," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 111(4), pages 1081-1110.
    3. Brzoza-Brzezina, Michał & Makarski, Krzysztof & Wesołowski, Grzegorz, 2014. "Would it have paid to be in the eurozone?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 66-79.
    4. Krugman, Paul, 1991. "Increasing Returns and Economic Geography," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(3), pages 483-499, June.
    5. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Andrew K. Rose, 2000. "Estimating the Effect of Currency Unions on Trade and Output," NBER Working Papers 7857, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Cieślik Andrzej & Michałek Jan & Michałek Anna, 2014. "Does the Common Currency Increase Exports? Evidence from Firm-Level Data," International Journal of Management and Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of World Economy, vol. 41(1), pages 8-22, March.
    7. Andrzej Cieślik & Jan Jakub Michałek & Jerzy Mycielski, 2014. "Trade effects of the euro adoption by the EU new member states," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 45(4), pages 331-348.
    8. Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan & Bent E. Sørensen & Oved Yosha, 2003. "Risk Sharing and Industrial Specialization: Regional and International Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(3), pages 903-918, June.
    9. Mongelli, Francesco Paolo & De Grauwe, Paul, 2005. "Endogeneities of optimum currency areas: what brings countries sharing a single currency closer together?," Working Paper Series 468, European Central Bank.
    10. Marco Pagano, 2004. "The European Bond Markets under EMU," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 20(4), pages 531-554, Winter.
    11. Moerman, Gerard A., 2008. "Diversification in euro area stock markets: Country versus industry," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(7), pages 1122-1134, November.
    12. De Grauwe, Paul, 2016. "Economics of Monetary Union," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, edition 11, number 9780198739876, November.
    13. Kalemli-Ozcan, Sebnem & Sørensen, Bent E & Yosha, Oved, 2004. "Asymmetric Shocks and Risk Sharing in a Monetary Union: Updated Evidence and Policy Implications for Europe," CEPR Discussion Papers 4463, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    14. Krugman, Paul & Venables, Anthony J., 1996. "Integration, specialization, and adjustment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(3-5), pages 959-967, April.
    15. Karolina Konopczak & Krzysztof Marczewski, 2011. "Why so different from other CEECs – Poland’s cyclical divergence from the euro area during the recent financial crisis," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 42(2), pages 7-30.
    16. Vaubel, Roland, 1990. "Currency Competition and European Monetary Integration," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 100(402), pages 936-946, September.
    17. Carlos Marinheiro, 2003. "Output Smoothing in EMU and OECD: Can We Forego Government Contribution? A risk sharing approach," GEMF Working Papers 2003-02, GEMF, Faculty of Economics, University of Coimbra.
    18. Torres,Francisco & Giavazzi,Francesco (ed.), 1993. "Adjustment and Growth in the European Monetary Union," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521440196, December.
    19. Jeffrey Frankel, 2010. "The Estimated Trade Effects of the Euro: Why Are They Below Those from Historical Monetary Unions among Smaller Countries?," NBER Chapters, in: Europe and the Euro, pages 169-212, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Lawrence F. Katz, 1992. "Regional Evolutions," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 23(1), pages 1-76.
    21. Barry Eichengreen & Jurgen von Hagen, 1996. "Fiscal Policy and Monetary Union: Is There a Tradeoff between Federalism and Budgetary Restrictions?," NBER Working Papers 5517, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. Andrzej Cieślik & Jan, Jakub Michałek & Jerzy Mycielski, 2012. "Consequences of the euro adoption by Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries for their trade flows," NBP Working Papers 118, Narodowy Bank Polski, Economic Research Department.
    23. Krzysztof Beck, 2013. "Determinants Of Business Cycles Synchronization In The European Union And The Euro Area," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 8(4), pages 25-48, December.
    24. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1997. "Is EMU more justifiable ex post than ex ante?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-5), pages 753-760, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Henryk Bak & Sebastian Maciejewski, 2015. "Asymmetric shocks and international risk sharing in the European Monetary Union and the European Union," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 46(6), pages 523-564.
    2. Mongelli, Francesco Paolo & De Grauwe, Paul, 2005. "Endogeneities of optimum currency areas: what brings countries sharing a single currency closer together?," Working Paper Series 468, European Central Bank.
    3. Marc-Alexandre Sénégas, 2010. "La théorie des zones monétaires optimales au regard de l'euro : Quels enseignements après dix années d'union économique et monétaire en Europe ?," Revue d'économie politique, Dalloz, vol. 120(2), pages 379-419.
    4. Sofia Gouveia & Leonida Correia, 2008. "Business cycle synchronisation in the Euro area: the case of small countries," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 103-121, July.
    5. Tomas Adam & Oxana Babecka Kucharcukova & Jan Babecky & Vojtech Belling & Sona Benecka & Jan Bruha & Kamil Galuscak & Tomas Holub & Eva Hromadkova & Lubos Komarek & Zlatuse Komarkova & Kamila Kulhava , 2015. "Analyses of the Czech Republic's Current Economic Alignment with the Euro Area 2015," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, number as15 edited by Kamila Kulhava & Lucie Matejkova.
    6. Jan Babecky & Oxana Babetskaia-Kukharchuk & Kamil Galuscak & Dana Hajkova & Jaroslav Hermanek & Tomas Holub & Roman Horvath & Petr Jakubik & Lubos Komarek & Zlatuse Komarkova & Petr Kral & Filip Novot, 2008. "Analyses of the Czech Republic's Current Economic Alignment with the Euro Area 2008," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, number as08 edited by Dana Hajkova.
    7. Henryk Bąk & Sebastian Maciejewski, 2017. "The symmetry of demand and supply shocks in the European Monetary Union," Bank i Kredyt, Narodowy Bank Polski, vol. 48(1), pages 1-44.
    8. Katerina Arnostova & Oxana Babecka Kucharcukova & Jan Babecky & Vojtech Belling & Sona Benecka & Jan Bruha & Martin Gurtler & Tomas Holub & Eva Hromadkova & Lubos Komarek & Zlatuse Komarkova & Petr Kr, 2016. "Analyses of the Czech Republic's Current Economic Alignment with the Euro Area 2016," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, number as16 edited by Katerina Arnostova & Lucie Matejkova.
    9. Katerina Arnostova & Tomas Adam & Oxana Babecka Kucharcukova & Jan Babecky & Vojtech Belling & Sona Benecka & Jan Bruha & Martin Gurtler & Tibor Hledik & Tomas Holub & Eva Hromadkova & Lubos Komarek &, 2017. "Analyses of the Czech Republic's Current Economic Alignment with the Euro Area 2017," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, number as17 edited by Katerina Arnostova & Lucie Matejkova.
    10. Michael Artis, 2008. "What do we now know about currency unions?," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(1), pages 13-29.
    11. Stefano Schiavo, 2008. "Financial Integration, GDP Correlation and the Endogeneity of Optimum Currency Areas," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 75(297), pages 168-189, February.
    12. Lars Jonung & Eoin Drea, 2010. "It Can't Happen, It's a Bad Idea, It Won't Last: U.S. Economists on the EMU and the Euro, 1989–2002," Econ Journal Watch, Econ Journal Watch, vol. 7(1), pages 1-4–52, January.
    13. Francesco Paolo Mongelli, 2008. "European Economic and Monetary Integration, and the Optimum Currency Area Theory," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 302, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    14. Alban Mathieu, 2021. "Frankel and Rose’s Introduction to the Endogeneity of Optimality: A Model Limited to the European Monetary Experience," Economic Alternatives, University of National and World Economy, Sofia, Bulgaria, issue 2, pages 299-314, July.
    15. Jakob de Haan & Jeroen Hessel & Niels Gilbert, 2014. "Reforming the architecture of EMU: Ensuring stability in Europe," DNB Working Papers 446, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    16. Economidou, Claire & Kool, Clemens, 2009. "European economic integration and (a)symmetry of macroeconomic fluctuations," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 778-787, July.
    17. Tomas Adam & Oxana Babecka Kucharcukova & Jan Babecky & Jan Bruha & Tomas Holub & Eva Hromadkova & David Kocourek & Lubos Komarek & Zlatuse Komarkova & Kamila Kulhava & Petr Kral & Ivana Kubicova & Ji, 2013. "Analyses of the Czech Republic's Current Economic Alignment with the Euro Area 2013," Occasional Publications - Edited Volumes, Czech National Bank, number as13 edited by Jakub Mateju & Kamila Kulhava.
    18. Meon, Pierre-Guillaume & Weill, Laurent, 2004. "A view of the European Union as an evolving country portfolio," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 853-868, November.
    19. Forni, Mario & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2001. "Federal policies and local economies: Europe and the US," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 109-134, January.
    20. Michael Bordo & Harold James, 2008. "A Long Term Perspective on the Euro," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 307, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:vrs:ijomae:v:46:y:2015:i:1:p:7-40:n:1. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: http://kolegia.sgh.waw.pl/en/KGS/Pages/default.aspx .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Peter Golla (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://kolegia.sgh.waw.pl/en/KGS/Pages/default.aspx .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.