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Determinants Of Business Cycles Synchronization In The European Union And The Euro Area

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  • Krzysztof Beck

    (Lazarski University, Poland)

Abstract

Further economic and monetary integration in Europe is currently on hold due to the crisis and even questions about the possible exile of Greece. Especially in those conditions, it is important, to see whether integrated Europe can handle future problems and if economic and monetary integration can be helpful or rather more problematic. The main aim of this paper is to check to what degree business cycles are synchronized in the Eurozone and the European Union and what the main determinants of business cycles synchronization are. To achieve this, the following steps have been taken. Firstly, we turn to optimum currency area theory, to see what conditions need to be met, if the European Union and the euro area can use common monetary policy to deal with some economic shocks. Then, all necessary methodological explanations are presented. Later on, the preliminary data analysis is employed to see how business cycles and their determinants were acting during the last 20 years. Finally, panel data analysis is used to check how those determinants actually influence business cycles synchronization. The main finding of the article is that even though business cycles synchronization has been progressing in the European Union and the euro area so does the specialization – divergence in production structure. This may result in less synchronized business cycles in the future.

Suggested Citation

  • Krzysztof Beck, 2013. "Determinants Of Business Cycles Synchronization In The European Union And The Euro Area," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 8(4), pages 25-48, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:pes:ierequ:v:8:y:2013:i:4:p:25-48
    DOI: 10.12775/EQUIL.2013.025
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Krzysztof Beck & Ntokozo Patrick Nzimande, 2023. "Labor mobility and business cycle synchronization in Southern Africa," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 159-179, February.
    2. Beck, Krzysztof, 2021. "Why business cycles diverge? Structural evidence from the European Union," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    3. Bąk Henryk & Maciejewski Sebastian, 2015. "Endogeneity and Specialization in the European Monetary Union," International Journal of Management and Economics, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of World Economy, vol. 46(1), pages 7-40, June.
    4. Pedro Oliveira, Maria Paula Fontoura, Nuno Sobreira, 2023. "Symmetry Of Demand And Supply Shocks In The Eurozone," Working Papers REM 2023/0275, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    5. Krzysztof Beck, 2022. "Macroeconomic policy coordination and the European business cycle: Accounting for model uncertainty and reverse causality," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 74(4), pages 1095-1114, October.
    6. Ngozi E. Egbuna & Maimuna John-Sowe & Santigie M. Kargbo (PhD) & Sani Bawa (PhD) & Ibrahima Diallo & Isatou Mendy, 2020. "Business Cycle Synchronisation In The Ecowas Region," Working Papers 18, West African Monetary Institute.
    7. Wojciech Grabowski, 2019. "Givers or Recipients? Co-Movements between Stock Markets of CEE-3 and Developed Countries," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(22), pages 1-24, November.
    8. Sodiq Olaiwola Jimoh & Soo Y. Chua, 2024. "Business Cycle Synchronisation and Regional Migration: Testing the OCA Criteria in the West African Region," The Indian Journal of Labour Economics, Springer;The Indian Society of Labour Economics (ISLE), vol. 67(1), pages 97-108, March.

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    JEL classification:

    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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