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Re-Evaluating Swedish Membership in EMU: Evidence from an Estimated Model

  • Söderström, Ulf

    ()

    (Research Department, Central Bank of Sweden)

I revisit the potential costs and benefits for Sweden of joining the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) of the European Union. I first show that the Swedish business cycle since the mid-1990s has been closely correlated with the Euro area economies, suggesting that common shocks have been an important driving force of business cycles in Europe. However, evidence from an estimated model of the Swedish economy instead suggests that country specific shocks have been important for fluctuations in the Swedish economy since 1993, implying that EMU membership could be costly. The model also indicates that the exchange rate has to a large extent acted to destabilize, rather than stabilize, the Swedish economy, pointing to the costs of independent monetary policy with a flexible exchange rate. Finally, counterfactual simulations of the model suggest that Swedish in inflation and GDP growth might have been slightly higher if Sweden had been a member of EMU since the launch in 1999, but also that GDP growth might have been more volatile. The evidence is therefore not conclusive about whether or not participation in the monetary union would be advantageous for Sweden.

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Paper provided by Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden) in its series Working Paper Series with number 227.

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Length: 50 pages
Date of creation: 01 Dec 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:hhs:rbnkwp:0227
Contact details of provider: Postal: Sveriges Riksbank, SE-103 37 Stockholm, Sweden
Phone: 08 - 787 00 00
Fax: 08-21 05 31
Web page: http://www.riksbank.com/
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  4. repec:idb:brikps:6511 is not listed on IDEAS
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  6. Coeurdacier, Nicolas & Martin, Philippe, 2009. "The geography of asset trade and the euro: Insiders and outsiders," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 90-113, June.
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  12. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January.
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  17. Giuseppe Bertola & Tito Boeri, 2002. "EMU Labour Markets Two Years On: Microeconomic Tensions and Institutional Evolution," Chapters, in: EMU and Economic Policy in Europe, chapter 10 Edward Elgar.
  18. Romain Duval & Jørgen Elmeskov, 2005. "The Effects of EMU on Structural Reforms in Labour and Product Markets," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 438, OECD Publishing.
  19. Alejandro Micco & Ernesto H. Stein & Guillermo Luis Ordoñez, 2003. "The Currency Union Effect on Trade: Early Evidence from EMU," Research Department Publications 4339, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
  20. Lindé, Jesper, 2003. "Monetary Policy Shocks and Business Cycle Fluctuations in a Small Open Economy: Sweden 1986-2002," Working Paper Series 153, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
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  23. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
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